I Studied Arch Manning’s Tape. Believe the Hype.

I’m not going to bury the lede: Based on Arch Manning’s 2024 tape—and assuming he continues developing at the pace he has to this point—I wouldn’t hesitate to make him my early no. 1 prospect in the 2026 draft class. He is that gifted and has shown immense potential in the limited playing time he’s had through his first two seasons at Texas.

But Arch is a Manning. And the Mannings have a history when it comes to making the NFL wait in favor of proper development, as both Peyton and Eli played four college seasons before being drafted first overall in 1998 and 2004, respectively, and going on to have Hall of Fame NFL careers. 

The modern NFL has shown this strategy is still a smart one. Just last season, we saw the historic success of Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, both of whom played more than 50 games in college and can attribute much of their early NFL success to that experience.

Drake Maye also showed tons of promise as a rookie, but he wasn’t plug-and-play ready the way those other guys were, and there are other recent examples of players such as Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson—who both saw limited action in college—struggling once they got to the pros. 

This is all to say that I do not expect Arch to be part of the 2026 NFL draft, but it doesn’t hurt to take an early look at what he showcased across 233 snaps of game tape in the 2024 season. I did that over the weekend and came to the conclusion that the guy is loaded with talent. More so than I originally thought while watching games during the season. 

So what was my process? 

Typically, I like to watch a game or two without picking up a pen. So I went through and watched all 233 of Arch’s snaps and didn't write anything down. Then, I dove into the PFF Ultimate database and watched 107 dropbacks and 17 runs and started jotting down some initial notes. After that, I did a deep dive on what PFF deemed his 70 “key plays”—snaps where Arch had a clear positive or negative impact on the play—with 56 plays coming against lesser defensive talent (Colorado State, UTSA, ULM, and Mississippi State), and 14 plays coming against elite competition (Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, Clemson, and Ohio State). 

Because our sample size is so small, what I’m looking for most in this tape is improvement on a play-to-play basis. There isn’t much to be found across his 14 key plays against top competition, given seven were runs and that he was mostly used in packages instead of being able to establish a rhythm in the offense. So that leaves us with the other 56 plays, which fascinated me and are the basis for my opinion that the hype is indeed justified. 

To illustrate why I came away so impressed with Arch, I’ve clipped an excerpt of notes from my tape study in chronological order and want you to read through them. What do you notice? 

—4:04 Q3 vs CSU (38-0!): Hangs on to first read a tick long but identifies crosser open and snaps off a sharp, accurate ball that WR Johntay Cook takes down inside the 10.

—GL vs CSU: Staring down left side but ultimately makes the right decision to tuck, start to run, and then SHUFFLES it over to Silas Bolden who runs it in for a score.

—12:19 Q2 UTSA: Same concept as above (4:04 Q3 CSU). Rolling right again. But this time comes off read FASTER (improvement!) and makes the same completion… this time to DeAndre Moore.

—11:15 Q2 UTSA: One cut and go. Dude has wheels! Clearly Cooper’s son!

—4:15 Q2 UTSA: SACK! His fault. Locks on to the primary too long. BLINDSIDE CAT BLITZ IS HIS!! Internal clock needs to speed up. That COMES WITH PLAYING MORE BALL. 

—1:55 Q2 UTSA: Misses wide on an anticipation throw with receiver not yet out of break. Clearly still a work in progress in this area. Not great at it yet, so DOESN’T YET TRUST IT (as we saw on the sack I mentioned last play!). Another play to highlight development needed.

—14:47 Q4 UTSA: That’s stuff his uncles could not do!  Rolling left, flicking wrist and driving it!

—13:44 Q4 UTSA: Natural touch landing the plane on a narrow runway inside RZ. Slot-fade back right corner EZ. Passes that test.

—13:30 1Q ULM: Great ball placement and on time (10-12 out left side).

—12:30 1Q ULM: INT under pressure. Into traffic. Throw it away. Just a young, dumb decision. Type of shit you learn from… 

—13:26 Q2 ULM: Flicks it 50 yards with ease.

—12:52 Q2 ULM: Locks on to primary and allows CB to get an early jump. 

—4:49 Q1 MSST: Rips the in-cutting route on point.

—:36 Q2 MSST: Absolutely beautiful deep left rail shot for TD!!! And did it under pressure!!

—5:01 Q3 MSST: Senses pressure, climbs, comes off his read last second and throws a nicely spotted ball to the right side. THAT’S NFL STUFF!!

—MSST, rest of game: He shows some scoot on a few longer runs!! 

Two aspects stand out to me. First: This guy has it all, talent-wise. I’m not saying he’s Lamar Jackson as a runner or that he has Josh Allen’s arm, but Arch is tooled up. His combination of prototypical size, mobility, an excellent release, and his natural accuracy—it’s all there for him to be a great player. The ball snaps off his hand and he’s both slippery and strong in the pocket, showing the ability to extend passing plays and break away from defenders in the open field as a runner.

And the second, more important thing: In that small sample, I saw a young player who was learning from his failures, progressing quickly, and loosening his grip on needing to be perfect. The more he played, the fewer negative notes I had, and the more impressed I was at his ability to avoid making the same mistake twice. 

That points to a guy who’s hungry and coachable. Factor in his combination of raw talent, family background, and elite quarterback coaching in the form of Steve Sarkisian, and Arch in as good a position to succeed as any QB prospect in recent memory. 

We still need to see how Arch fares against top-level competition in the SEC next season—the game looked fast for him against Georgia in the regular season last year—but I really like what I’ve seen on balance thus far.

And now that he’s the guy, he needs to prove that he can handle the pressure of being the team’s leader and learning full installments on a weekly basis. Questions certainly remain—How will he adjust when SEC coordinators identify his tendencies? Will he improve his internal clock? How consistent will he be when he finds success?—as they would with any player at this stage of his career. 

But I’m going to be betting on Arch’s talent and trusting that the improvements I observed across such a small sample size will continue compounding as he sees his role grow and responsibilities increase.

Arch may not be part of the 2026 draft festivities, but I wouldn't be shocked if his is the first name called in 2027.

Coming Up on The McShay Report

• Looking for the 2026 QB1: This week, we’ll be starting a scouting series with tape breakdowns of the top 2026 quarterback prospects, beginning with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier on Thursday. We’ll also be scouting LaNorris Sellers, Cade Klubnik, Drew Allar, Fernando Mendoza, and John Mateer in the coming weeks, and will wrap the series with a quarterback-focused Q&A for premium subscribers.