Tom Brady’s QB Philosophy, First-Round Running Backs, and What I’m Looking Forward to at the Combine

I first went to the NFL combine in 1999 as a senior in college. My mentor, the late Gary Horton, snuck me in for all four days of workouts. It was an absolute dream come true. I was hooked and spent a late-winter week in Indianapolis for 25 consecutive years until last year. I missed it all. The above-ground walkways from the hotel to the stadium, catching up with old friends, meeting new ones, and ducking agents (many, not all) along the way. Perfectly cooked steaks and the overwhelming cocktail sauce at St. Elmo. More perfectly cooked steaks with nightclub lighting at Prime 47. Sneaking off to Shapiro’s for a deli sandwich. Hours and hours of studying tape with former colleague and good friend Kevin Weidl (now a Ravens scout). Unruly room service orders at all hours of the day and trying to explain those bills away on expense reports. I even missed how terrible my clothes smelled after a few hours at Nicky Blaine’s cigar bar the night before. 

That’s why this week’s flight to Indianapolis has been circled on my calendar for a while. And I can’t wait to share my observations, analysis, and experiences right here in The McShay Report and on The McShay Show. Alongside my cohost, Steve Muench, who is making his first trip to Indy, I’ll broadcast each day Wednesday through Saturday from inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

Here are four thoughts for the week ahead, including takeaways from my first mock draft and what I’m looking forward to seeing in Indianapolis:

• Taking stock of this year’s overlooked wide receiver group: Who can separate from the pack at the combine?

• What I’m looking for from the loaded defensive line class: Which combine tests and measurements matter most for defensive linemen?

• Why I had three first-round running backs in Mock Draft 1.0: What makes this group the strongest since 2017?

• Tom Brady’s executive influence: How the all-time great and new Raiders executive can help shape the future of quarterback development.

Which receivers will stand out at the combine?

One position group that’s been overlooked thus far in the draft cycle is wide receiver. This year’s class is not as strong as we’ve seen in years past—I view it similarly to 2023, when four receivers went from picks 20-23. Setting aside Travis Hunter, who’s projected more strongly as a cornerback than as a receiver, I view Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan as the highest-rated receiver. There are mixed opinions on how high he could go. He could end up a top-10-15 pick, but I can see him dropping, especially in a class with only a handful of offensive tackles and an exceptional defensive line group. McMillan draws comparisons to Drake London a lot. I see similar traits, but when it comes to Tet’s routes, consistency, run-blocking effort, and attention to detail … I just don’t think he’s quite at the level Drake was coming out of USC. 

In the top tier of my receiver rankings, I have McMillan followed by some order of Texas’s Matthew Golden, Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka, and Missouri’s Luther Burden III. At the combine, I’ll be more interested in the tier of receivers that comes after those players, those likely to be day-two selections. Remember, receiver and cornerback are the two position groups where players can separate themselves most from their peers depending on their workouts. Here are players in that next tier that I’m interested in seeing in Indianapolis: For the bigger, X receiver types, it’s Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins, Ole Miss’s Tre Harris, TCU’s Jack Bech, and Stanford’s Elic Ayomanor. For the speedier, Z/slot receiver types, it’s Utah State’s Jalen Royals, Iowa State’s Jaylin Noel, Oregon’s Tez Johnson, Texas’s Isaiah Bond, and Colorado State’s Tory Horton.

For receivers, people tend to focus on the 40 times, but they’re not everything. More important is for players to differentiate themselves within their clusters. The two clusters above include players who have the potential to go in the top 40 picks. How can they distinguish themselves at the combine? There are very small margins in which to do so.

It’s going to be a fascinating combine week for defensive line prospects.

I spent a lot of time on The McShay Show last week raving about the quality and depth of this year’s defensive line class. For context, I have 20 edge defenders with grades in the first three rounds. The average for the past three drafts is 13 selected in that range. For interior defensive linemen, I have 17 in this year’s class with grades in the first three rounds. The average for the past three years is 10. It’s as good a class as I can remember, and the sheer depth is what stands out most. With that in mind, let’s put the edge and interior defensive line classes into tiers. 

For interior defensive linemen, Michigan’s Mason Graham is in his own tier. I believe there are three elite-tier prospects in this class: Abdul Carter, Travis Hunter, and Graham, in that order. The second tier for IDL includes Michigan’s Kenneth Grant, Ole Miss’s Walter Nolen, and Oregon’s Derrick Harmon. The third tier includes guys like Texas’s Alfred Collins, Toledo’s Darius Alexander, South Carolina’s T.J. Sanders, Florida State’s Joshua Farmer, Ohio State’s Tyleik Williams, Tennessee’s Omarr Norman-Lott, and Virginia Tech’s Aeneas Peebles. For the fourth tier, I have Maryland’s Jordan Phillips, Kentucky’s Deone Walker, Nebraska’s Ty Robinson, Ole Miss’s JJ Pegues, and Ohio State’s Ty Hamilton. 

At the combine, the measurables that matter most for these players, at least in terms of studies we’ve done on what historically translates to the NFL, are the vertical jump and short shuttle. Since 2008, 25 players from this group have hit 33.5 inches or better in the vertical jump. Braden Fiske did so last year; Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh, and Ed Oliver have also done so. It’s a good list. Teams will adjust their internal numbers based on a player’s weight (“weight-adjusted” results or “WADJ”), but the basic threshold they want to see players clear is 29 inches. In the short shuttle, the basic benchmark is 4.4 or 4.5 seconds. Since 2008, only 25 players from this group have run 4.4 or faster—4.65 is about the five-year average. 

As for the edge players, Carter is in a tier all by himself. In Tier 2, I have Georgia’s duo of Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker, Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr., Marshall’s Mike Green, and Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart. All of these players are in first-round consideration. 

For the next tier, I will categorize these players into two groups based on their key attributes, and I consider them all day-two prospects. 

Players built on power: Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton, LSU’s Bradyn Swinson, Ohio State’s JT Tuimoloau, LSU’s Sai’vion Jones, Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer, Oregon’s Jordan Burch, and Arkansas’s Landon Jackson 

Players built on speed and athleticism: Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku, UCLA’s Oluwafemi Oladejo, Michigan’s Josaiah Stewart, Texas’s Barryn Sorrell, and South Carolina’s Kyle Kennard 

For edge rushers, the three-cone drill produces one of the most telling results at the combine. Since 2008, only 25 players have run a 6.91 or faster, including Aidan Hutchinson, Melvin Ingram, Sam Hubbard, Harold Landry, Joey Bosa, and Maxx Crosby.

Why were there three first-round running backs in my Mock 1.0?

I released my first mock draft last week, the first I’ve published in two years. People seemed most surprised at the three first-round running backs I included. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is a no-brainer—he’s a lock for the first round and will be the first running back taken. I also included North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton and Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson in the latter half of the round, which, if it happened, would be the first time since 2018 that three running backs were taken in the first round (Saquon Barkley at no. 2, Rashaad Penny at no. 27, and Sony Michel at no. 31). 

I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, and I’m not running to FanDuel to place a bet on it. First, I’ll explain why it’s unlikely before making the case for how it might happen. As I laid out earlier, the depth of this defensive line class is the story of the 2025 draft. So yes, there will be more really talented defensive linemen, especially along the interior, found later in this draft than in most. The exact same is true at running back, which could see at least 30 selected in the seven-round process for the first time since 2017. So with that in mind, I believe teams drafting in the late first round will favor selecting a defensive lineman over a running back if the grades are similar—it’s just a higher-priority position. Period. 

But let’s return to this loaded RB class and its similarities to 2017, which is considered by many to be the best running back class in the modern era. That year saw Leonard Fournette (no. 4) and Christian McCaffrey (no. 8) taken in the top 10. Later in the draft, teams selected Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon (second round); Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and James Conner (third round); Samaje Perine and Jamaal Williams (fourth round); and Aaron Jones (fifth round). Hampton deserves to be a first-round pick based on talent alone, and Henderson proved himself to be the kind of versatile back with home-run potential that teams covet. 

That sets up the case for more first-round running backs than just Jeanty. Consider Jahmyr Gibbs, the Detroit Lions’ selection with the 12th pick in 2023. He might have been viewed as a luxury pick at that spot, but he’s transformed the Lions offense these past two years. I wouldn’t be surprised if a playoff-caliber team selecting later in the first round looks at Hampton and Henderson and decides they can help put their offense over the top like Gibbs has done in Detroit.

Why Tom Brady’s sit-and-learn quarterback philosophy could have legs.

In my Mock Draft 1.0, I paired the Las Vegas Raiders with Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders at no. 6. Much is made of Tom Brady’s involvement in the Raiders’ decision-making as a minority owner, as well as his relationship with Sanders. I want to provide some background on how I’m considering those factors when evaluating the Raiders’ options. 

Brady clearly believes in giving a rookie quarterback a year or so to sit and learn behind a veteran before being thrown to the wolves. In an appearance last November on The Herd, Brady told Colin Cowherd how important mentorship and development are for a young quarterback. “There’s no way for me to really see sustained success in the NFL at the quarterback position if you don’t have total control of what’s being done out on the field,” Brady said. He cited Patrick Mahomes as an example of a player who benefited from having a rookie gap year. He also mentioned Sam Darnold’s struggles in New York early in his career and his success last season in Minnesota, which plays into my theory of the Raiders wanting to sign a veteran like Darnold in free agency while also drafting a young QB to learn behind him. 

It’s hardly a new concept. But Brady is a card-carrying member of the sit-and-learn club. He can go on as many shows as he wants and preach for as many hours as he likes, but this is a lead-by-example league. If he believes in this initiative as strongly as he says, he can use his platform as a minority owner to make the change he wants to see in the NFL. If the Raiders can execute this strategy successfully, other teams will take notice, and it will serve as yet another positive example of purposeful patience with young quarterback development. 

And it appears that’s one of Brady’s missions in his new role.

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