Mock Draft 4.0: A Giant QB Trade, and Two Late Risers in the Top 10

We’re one day away from the NFL draft, when all will be revealed. After so many calls and texts with NFL personnel, and after countless hours of my own film study, it’s time for Mock Draft 4.0. I can’t promise I won’t make changes over the next 24 hours, but here is my latest (and possibly last, depending on what I’m hearing) prediction about how the board will fall. Have at it!

Programming Notes

– I released my final Big Board on Tuesday. Many of you requested the full rankings in a spreadsheet. You can find that here. It’s sortable by position. 

– Please join us for The McShay Show beginning at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday. We’ll be livestreaming the entire first round. You won’t want to miss it. 

1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami

Brian Callahan has spent his entire career building for the opportunity to select his choice of quarterback as a head coach. He spent time early in his NFL coaching career as an offensive assistant in Denver with Peyton Manning. He made his way up the ranks, working with Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr before being elevated to Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator and helping take Joe Burrow and the Bengals to the Super Bowl. He’ll hope to experience similar success with Cam Ward.

2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado

Cleveland can’t pass on the NFL’s Shohei Ohtani. Hunter will major at wide receiver and minor at cornerback as he gets acclimated to the NFL.

3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State

Shedeur Sanders is a no-go for head coach Brian Daboll, who’s one of the most gifted offensive minds and quarterback developers in the NFL. The Giants will be wise to trust him in this instance. General manager Joe Schoen will make the only decision, in my mind, by taking Carter here. Keep an eye on Kayvon Thibodeaux, who might be moved as part of a trade to get the Giants back into Round 1 for a chance at Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart.

4. New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU

Campbell might not be this high on many other teams’ boards, but New England’s ranking is all that matters. New head coach Mike Vrabel fell in love with Campbell after meeting him multiple times during the draft process. Campbell’s recall and football intelligence sold Vrabel on making him the leader of the Patriots' OL room. There’s even a report that Drake Maye knows Campbell is the pick.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

Liam Coen will all but put his foot down with this pick. He needs an offensive weapon, and I’m told that it’ll be Jeanty if Jacksonville stays at no. 5. However, they’d entertain an offer to trade back a few spots if they feel confident that Tetairoa McMillan will still be on the board. They’d need to land before Dallas drafts at no. 12. Chicago might be the most viable option for a potential trade-back at no. 10.

6. Las Vegas Raiders: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas

Many rate Armand Membou higher, but Raiders general manager John Spytek and part-owner Tom Brady, who is very much involved in this decision, are big on culture, and Banks is one of the highest-character players in the draft. He would immediately compete for the starting job at right tackle or guard. Left tackle Kolton Miller is entering the final year of his contract, so this pick would represent a short-term upgrade with long-term flexibility built in.

7. New York Jets: Jalon Walker, Edge, Georgia

New head coach Aaron Glenn wants an elite defense, so Texas cornerback Jahdae Barron might be in play for a unit that ranked tied for 26th in interceptions last season. But you can’t have enough pass rushers. Just look at what happened to the Lions, Glenn’s previous team, when Aidan Hutchinson went down. Walker’s positional versatility will keep him on the field a lot more than he would be as a pure edge. Plus, he’s an A+ football character guy. Glenn wants full buy-in. Walker will give it.

8. Carolina Panthers: Walter Nolen, IDL, Ole Miss

I’m told by a reliable source that Carolina is looking to trade back and might take less than fair value to do so. If Jeanty is still on the board, this could be the spot where Denver moves up to get him. But if the Panthers can’t move out and with Walker gone, I think it will come down to Nolen, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, or Tetairoa McMillan here.

9. New Orleans Saints: Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia

This is a perfect match. Williams is raw, but the Saints are betting on his traits and motor—I would do the same. He’s cut from the same cloth as Cameron Jordan, who is back on a one-year deal for his 15th season. It’s a perfect situation for the team-first Jordan to help develop the raw but supremely gifted Williams before passing the torch in 2026.

10. Chicago Bears: Mason Graham, IDL, Michigan

For a minute, it looked like Jeanty would fall into the Bears’ lap. But unless they trade up to get him, they’ll need to go in a different direction. I love the concept of pairing a young pass-catching weapon with tight end Cole Kmet, especially since Chicago would have its choice between Warren and Colston Loveland in this scenario. But I’m hearing it would come down to Graham or Shemar Stewart here. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen would love Graham’s active, disruptive style in his scheme. Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson, LSU tight end Mason Taylor, Miami tight end Elijah Arroyo, and Oregon offensive tackle Josh Conerly Jr. would be in play at picks 39 and 41.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M

I’m hearing that the 49ers don’t view offensive tackle as their most pressing need with the 11th pick. Instead, there’s a belief they want to address the defensive front here. Stewart is an excellent run defender with the traits to develop into a high-impact pass rusher, along the trajectory of guys like Rashan Gary and Travon Walker. Playing opposite a master technician like Nick Bosa would accelerate Stewart’s development.

12. Dallas Cowboys: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

There’s a lot of smoke about the Jaguars coveting McMillan if they can move back from no. 5 but remain ahead of the Cowboys. This seems to be the floor for the polarizing 6-foot-4 wideout. As an X receiver with a massive catch radius, he’d be a good complement to CeeDee Lamb and would provide Dak Prescott with a big target on the perimeter.

13. Miami Dolphins: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri

It’s no secret Miami wants Kelvin Banks Jr. here. Membou might not be as clean as Banks, but he’s more physically gifted and he’s just 21 years old, so his best football is ahead of him. As a rookie, he would be a plug-and-play starter at guard who should eventually kick outside to tackle. Miami has shown interest in South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori and Alabama offensive lineman Tyler Booker, but it’s too early for either of them.

14. Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State

This has to be the dream scenario for Indianapolis. Think of a more talented Dallas Goedert in Shane Steichen’s offense. Last season, Colts tight ends Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree, and Will Mallory combined for 39 catches. In 2022, with Steichen as the Eagles offensive coordinator, Goedert had 55 catches for 702 yards.

15. Atlanta Falcons: James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee

It comes down to Pearce or Marshall’s Mike Green here. Atlanta is willing to overlook some of Pearce’s red flags to bring in who I believe is the second-best pure edge rusher in this class.

16. Arizona Cardinals: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama

If Campbell isn’t the pick here, it’s because of his medical. But if Arizona clears him, he makes all the sense in the world. With a clean bill of health, Campbell is considered by most teams to be one of the top 10-12 prospects in the class. Campbell converted from edge, so he’s still developing linebacker instincts, but his versatility to drop back in coverage and rush the passer is highly coveted.

17. Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Green, Edge, Marshall

Green’s blend of burst and upper-body power makes him one of this class’s most decorated pass rushers. He led the FBS in sacks last year and was dominant at the Senior Bowl, easing any doubts regarding the level of competition he faced in college. If the Bengals can get Trey Hendrickson’s contract negotiation squared away, the Bengals would boast a fierce duo off the edges.

18. Seattle Seahawks: Grey Zabel, OG, North Dakota State

He’s the best interior offensive lineman in this class and follows a long line of small-school players who improved their draft stock with dominant Senior Bowl showings. Zabel fits Seattle’s zone-blocking scheme perfectly, and general manager John Schneider will love his positional versatility as a college left tackle who projects as a starting guard or center in the NFL.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan

Tampa played the highest percentage of zone coverage in the NFL last season, but was tied for 26th in interceptions. That’s hard to do. Johnson is a sniper when his eyes are forward and he’s driving on the ball. This is a good scheme fit that would ease concerns about his 4.58 speed, which shows up when he’s trying to recover with his back facing the QB. Johnson’s durability could cause him to fall even farther, but I still think he’s great value here for Tampa. Texas wide receiver Matthew Golden is another name to watch at 19.

20. Denver Broncos: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan

I know the Broncos signed Evan Engram in free agency, but he played in just nine games last year due to a shoulder injury, and he’s entering his age-31 season. Loveland has no business being on the board this late, and Sean Payton would not pass up the opportunity to take the best tight end at separating in this class. Payton would have a blast cooking up concepts in 12 personnel for Loveland and Engram.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Derrick Harmon, IDL, Oregon

Shedeur Sanders is in play here—Mike Tomlin likes him. It’s also worth noting that Tomlin has a lot more power to make final personnel decisions now than he did when Kevin Colbert was general manager. Still, I don’t think Sanders will be the pick at 21. I know Pittsburgh is eager to move back and get additional draft compensation after trading a second-round pick for DK Metcalf, so be prepared for the Steelers to move off this spot. Harmon has some durability red flags that could cause him to slide, but I think he would be a great addition to Pittsburgh’s front alongside 35-year-old Cam Heyward. I also believe Pittsburgh covets Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson, so whether it’s at 21 or later in a trade-back scenario, it won’t surprise me at all if he becomes a Steeler.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Kenneth Grant, IDL, Michigan

Jim Harbaugh adds a 331-pound brick wall to plug in for the departed Poona Ford. Grant has unique mobility for his size and some untapped pass-rushing potential. I’m sure Harbaugh wouldn’t mind drafting a Michigan man.

23. Green Bay Packers: Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky

Mad Max is one of my favorite players in the draft. He would be an explosive young starter on the perimeter in Green Bay and ease the Packers’ concerns about Jaire Alexander’s role. Hairston is as quick as he is fast, which is notable considering he ran the fastest 40 (4.28 seconds) at the combine. He is also the most confident cornerback in this year’s class when the ball is in the air, evidenced by his tying a Kentucky program record with three career pick-sixes.

24. Minnesota Vikings: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

The Vikings have four picks, tied for the fewest of any team, so they will field calls to move back and accumulate more draft capital. But if a player of Barron’s caliber falls, it would be difficult to part with this selection. Barron is a STEAL here—I think he could come off the board as early as no. 7 to the Jets. He has elite instincts and is always around the football. He’s one of the best 15 all-around players in this class.

25. Houston Texans: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

I have it on good authority that Houston is aggressively trying to move up in the first round—I’m hearing for Banks or Zabel. If they end up staying here, they have a tough choice to make. I don’t think Ohio State OT Josh Simmons fits the makeup that DeMeco Ryans is looking for in his offensive line overhaul. Josh Conerly Jr. would be in consideration, as would Tyler Booker, who has elite football character and Alabama ties that Ryans likes. But Golden might be too hard to pass on. He’s the fastest WR in this class, and his crisp routes—combined with his excellent ability to adjust to the football—would give C.J. Stroud a quality replacement for the injured Tank Dell alongside Nico Collins and Christian Kirk.

26. Los Angeles Rams: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

A smart, strong, savvy receiver with a team-first mentality in Sean McVay’s system. It makes too much sense. Not many rookie receivers could step in and earn Matthew Stafford’s trust like Puka Nacua did last season. Egbuka is the most capable of any receiver in this class of doing just that.

27. Baltimore Ravens: Malaki Starks, DS, Georgia

He’s just a Raven, right? A smart, team-first, tough guy. His workout numbers don’t come close to telling the story of what he puts on tape. Baltimore allowed 58 plays of 20-plus yards last year, third-most in the NFL. Starks would immediately help cut down those back-breaking plays.

TRADE: New York Giants trade picks no. 34 and no. 99 to the Lions for pick no. 28

28. New York Giants (via Detroit): Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss

The Giants make a deal with Detroit to move back into the first round to get who I think is Daboll’s guy. Dart fits his mold of a sturdy, mobile quarterback who can thrive under pressure and process quickly on the move. With seasoned veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on the roster, Dart can take a season to learn Daboll’s system. With this move, the Giants could end the first round with arguably this year’s top prospect in Carter and Daboll’s top choice at QB—without giving up significant draft capital. I would love this outcome for all parties involved.

29. Washington Commanders: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College

Call it a hunch—or a little birdy. I honestly don’t know if this is the direction the Commanders will go, but they need an edge, and Ezeiruaku is an absolute technician with his long arms and lightning-quick hands. He led the nation in sacks per game last year, and he’s one of the top-tier character guys in this class. If it’s not Ezeiruaku here, I could see Josh Conerly Jr., TreVeyon Henderson, and Nick Emmanwori as fits.

30. Buffalo Bills: Shavon Revel Jr., CB, East Carolina

This could be a surprise pick for the public. I loved Revel’s tape before his season-ending injury. He’s a tall, long, and fast Cover-1/Cover-3 corner who can hold up on the perimeter. He returned to school in 2024 and showed improved physicality and better press technique. I think he would be a great fit in Buffalo’s scheme. The Bills recently signed Tre’Davious White, but he’s a short-term fix with a lot of uncertainty.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State

Simmons is the most talented offensive lineman in the class, with outstanding foot quickness and flexibility. But he also carries immaturity concerns, so it will be Andy Reid and his staff’s job to get the most out of him.  

32. Philadelphia Eagles: Mason Taylor, TE, LSU

General manager Howie Roseman won’t sit still. He’s more likely to move back than up, but with a projected 20 combined picks over the next two drafts, he’s capable of anything. I could see him exploiting a team that’s trying to move up to get the fifth-year option on a quarterback (or any team for any other position, for that matter). But whether it’s here or a few picks later on Friday night, Taylor is very much in play for Philly with Dallas Goedert’s uncertain future. Taylor is durable, tough, and dependable, making him one of the safest prospects in this year’s class. He shows up in clutch moments and was the most productive tight end in LSU history. I also think he was underutilized down the field in LSU’s offense, so I expect he’ll make more of an impact as a receiver in the NFL.  

Bonus Picks!

33. Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

34. Detroit Lions (via New York Giants): JT Tuimoloau, OT, Ohio State