Mock Draft 5.0: Bailey to the Jets, Love to the Giants, and a Surprise Tackle in the Top 10

We’re a little over 24 hours away from the 2026 NFL draft, and I’m ready to make my final (for now) first-round predictions. I’ve also just finalized my top-100 big board on TheRinger.com/McShay, so be sure to check that out as well. 

A quick reminder to join us LIVE on Netflix this Thursday beginning at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT for full pick-by-pick analysis and first-round reactions. We’ll also be launching a Discord channel for fans of the show to follow along, chat, and critique each pick of the draft together. More details to come on that tomorrow.

Behind the scenes, Mendoza has already been preparing for the transition, working with Brian Griese on the nuances of an NFL system (likely Klint Kubiak’s). His private workout and visit in Bloomington functioned more like an early install than a typical predraft stop.

The Raiders have prepared for this the right way. Signing Kirk Cousins gives them a veteran bridge and allows Mendoza to develop on a proper timeline—very much in line with the Brady philosophy of not rushing young quarterbacks.

Jets GM Darren Mougey is going to lean into risk aversion here, and it sounds like he views Bailey as the safer pick than Arvell Reese. Credit to Mougey and his extremely small inner circle, who have done a great job of keeping this pick quiet.

Priority no. 1 is trading back, picking up extra ammo for a Ty Simpson move up (from Round 2 to Round 1), and landing a top OT at better value a handful of spots down the board. The word from league sources is that ownership wants Jeremiyah Love and the front office wants David Bailey, but I’m not sure I completely trust that info, so I’m going with what makes the most sense from a roster-building standpoint—if the OL isn’t ready, drafting a RB in the top five has historically led to nightmare results.

It’s important to note that a trade up would almost certainly be for Reese in this scenario, so even if it’s not Arizona selecting here, there’s a strong likelihood the pick at 3 is for Reese. The Chiefs and Cowboys are the teams most frequently linked, but Dallas has only traded up once in 37 selections in the first three rounds since 2014—and that was in 2014 for DeMarcus Lawrence. I’m not entirely ruling out the Chiefs from moving up in Round 1, but with needs at edge, WR, OT, and CB—and only four picks in the first three rounds—a move from 9 all the way up to 3 seems extreme.

For Tennessee, there are Jeremiyah Love backers in the building, but I’m getting indications that this pick will be defense. David Bailey or Arvell Reese would be in play if available, but Styles is considered by Robert Saleh as a Fred Warner type—and folks who know Saleh understand that he believes you must build the defense around that position.

WR Jordyn Tyson, DS Caleb Downs, and OT Francis Mauigoa are the other three names linked to the Giants, but they cash in on the opportunity to draft the no. 1 player on my board—as well as many NFL teams’ boards—at pick no. 5.

They pair Love with Cam Skattebo (and Tyrone Tracy Jr.) in the backfield, complementing running styles and skill sets alongside second-year QB Jaxson Dart.

I’m not going to make this messy with a bunch of trades, but I’ve heard the Browns-Proctor connection for months now. They might not take him here, but they should have an opportunity to trade back on Thursday night and take him at a better value.

This is a Todd Monken fit, and he’s a left tackle—whereas Utah’s Spencer Fano isn’t a prototypical Monken guy and Mauigoa is a right tackle.

It comes down to Caleb Downs, Delane, or Carnell Tate. There’s love in the building for Tate, but too many sources I trust around the league think this pick is for Dan Quinn’s defense. Sonny Styles would be the ideal choice, but he’s gone to Tennessee in this exercise. (Important to note: If Styles doesn’t go at 4, he will almost certainly be here for Washington at 7.)

Delane is a good fit, but he’s not the typical length of a corner in Quinn’s system.

The Saints can sit back and take the best player on their board. While Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson could fill the Saints’ WR2 hole opposite Chris Olave (and I have both guys ranked slightly higher than Bain), I think the Saints can set themselves up for a strong two-round combo pick by going edge here. There will be some solid receiver options for them to choose from in Round 2.

You still can’t rule out offensive tackle—Andy Reid wants this line solidified, and there’s a Spencer Fano connection with Andy from their Kyle Whittingham ties. But maybe KC trades up later in the round to land the other Utah tackle, Caleb Lomu.

Caleb Downs and Vega Ioane could be in play here, but Mauigoa has been linked to the Giants for a while, and this would be great value to land a player many scouts believe is the top offensive lineman in the draft.

With Jermaine Eluemunor re-signed, the Giants have two RT/OGs to round out the right side of their line, and it would give them an overpowering run-blocking group for Jeremiyah Love, Cam Skattebo, and Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Bobby Slowik comes from the Shanahan tree, and Fano specializes as a zone blocker. This would be the perfect marriage of the best player available and a scheme fit for a Dolphins organization looking to build inside-out under new GM John-Eric Sullivan.

If they were to move up, it would be for a pass rusher, but in this situation Dallas gets the no. 5 player on my board. They can plug in Downs as an immediate-impact starter and leader of the secondary. They would also be thrilled if Rueben Bain Jr. or Mansoor Delane fell here.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I do believe Ty Simpson goes earlier than expected Thursday night, and I know the Rams think extremely highly of him.

Regardless, I think Les Snead is up to something bigger than sitting at 13 and taking a WR—I’m expecting some kind of fireworks.

The Ravens grab one of the best players left on the board at a position of need. It’s a perfect match.

TRADE: The Eagles send nos. 23, 68 (third round), and 114 (fourth round) to the Buccaneers for no. 15

I’m limiting trades in this final mock, but there’s no chance Howie Roseman sits still and watches teams like Detroit and Pittsburgh take the OT he wants ahead of the Eagles.

I know for a fact that Tampa Bay and the Jets are already fielding calls from teams about potential on-the-clock deals, and Tampa has a few holes to fill and will gladly move back eight spots to pick up additional draft capital.

No, Tate isn’t falling—I could see him going as high as 7 to Washington or 8 to New Orleans. But a scenario does exist where Tate slips out of the top 10, and I could see the Jets making a small move up a few spots to get him.

I also believe strongly that the Jets could move back.

I’ve said for a while that Detroit is targeting a tackle, and in this scenario they end up with one of the five best in this class without having to trade up. I wouldn’t be shocked if they do make a move up to secure their guy on Thursday night, though.

Woods has been catching a lot of buzz in conversations I’ve been having recently—full circle from earlier in the process—and the league seems to be coming back around on his traits despite a quieter 2025 season.

The Vikings run a one-gap scheme under Brian Flores, and Woods fits well there. Plus, they released Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave.

Two Ducks are in play for the Panthers here at 19. While it would be hard to pass on the upside of tight end Kenyon Sadiq, Thieneman is a special talent who could give Carolina speed, versatility, and playmaking ability on defense.

Steal. Mesidor is an older prospect with some durability issues in his past, but neither matters to the win-now Cowboys. Landing Downs and Mesidor would put the finishing touches on a massive eight-month rebuild of the Dallas defense.

This week’s Broderick Jones news (neck injury setback) only accelerates the Steelers’ need at OT. Iheanachor—who didn’t play high school football—offers intriguing upside and has gotten better every year in college.

The preference is OL Vega Ioane, and certainly an edge like Keldric Faulk or TJ Parker would be in consideration here, but the Chargers signed 32-year-old Dalvin Tomlinson to a one-year deal and he did not play all that well last season. McDonald is the best run-stopping IDL in the class, and he would make an instant impact in the middle of LAC’s defense.

Note—this is the team I hear most often connected to Jermod McCoy in Round 1, but most of the intel has McCoy making a similar slide to Round 2 as we saw from Will Johnson a year ago.

Tampa could use a new receiving threat to stretch the field after Mike Evans signed with the 49ers. Sadiq has a historic athletic profile and could be a difference maker in year one.

Yes, it would be shocking for Lemon to fall this far, but I do think he goes later than expected. In fact, I think all the receivers not named Jordyn Tyson will slide a bit—something I was preaching back in March and probably should have stuck to.

This is a dream scenario for Cleveland. They want to come out of Round 1 with an OT and a WR, and they wind up with Kadyn Proctor and Lemon. The QB situation is unsettled and might not be clear until next year’s draft, but Lemon would be a legit weapon to pair with Jerry Jeudy in 2026 and beyond.

The Bears are looking for fits at edge and DS if they can’t land the right OT, and Faulk fits from a length standpoint in Dennis Allen’s scheme. Faulk’s sack production isn’t ideal, but Chicago would be banking on his development as someone who just turned 21 and is an excellent run stopper on day one with a lot of upside as a sub-package interior rusher.

Edge is what I keep hearing for Buffalo from sources around the league, but you can’t pass up Cooper here. Giving Josh Allen a physical YAC weapon with excellent ball skills like Cooper could take the Bills offense to another level. He has inside-out flexibility and would fit in nicely with DJ Moore and Khalil Shakir.

Trent Williams’s new two-year deal doesn’t change the need for a long-term replacement at tackle. But if the right edge falls—or if the 49ers have a higher grade on WRs Denzel Boston or KC Concepcion (both still available in this exercise)—it wouldn’t be a shock if they go one of those routes.

They pick again 10 spots later at 38, where they can grab a guard like Keylan Rutledge, Emmanuel Pregnon, or Chase Bisontis.

This isn’t an obvious starter need, but you can’t have enough pass rushers. Parker could benefit greatly from learning behind Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, and he shares some similarities with Hunter as a power-based player whose college sack production was underwhelming but whose pass-rush production could take off at the next level.

Edge and OT are greater needs, and don’t be surprised if they trade up for Caleb Lomu, who has the same Andy Reid–Kyle Whittingham connection as his college teammate Spencer Fano. But in this scenario, KC drafts a starting corner in Hood, who fits Steve Spagnuolo’s defense as a physical, fast, man-coverage corner.

A big, physical WR with YAC ability, Boston is a perfect fit in Bobby Slowik’s offense. San Diego State CB Chris Johnson would make sense here, too.

Concepcion is one of the most underrated prospects in this class, and someone who I think can be a year-one impact receiver for Drake Maye in New England. He’d be a great complement to A.J. Brown. The two of them would revamp the Patriots’ receiver room overnight.

A trade back is most likely—they’d prefer to take Notre Dame RB Jadarian Price at a better value spot and pick up an extra selection in the  process. But if Seattle can’t move, Chris Johnson would make sense, as they need a playmaker at corner alongside Devon Witherspoon and recently extended Josh Jobe after losing Riq Woolen.