The Muench Mock Draft: What I Would Do If I Were a GM

Don’t get me wrong—everyone loves a good mock draft. My son Tyler makes and sends me two or three a week. Most are terrible. All are entertaining.

I’ve always thought that pairing players with teams is a job for NFL insiders, not analysts like me who focus on evaluating players. But what if a mock draft prioritized which player a team should take over prognosticating where a player might land? This is my attempt at that exercise.

I’ve evaluated players, teams, and trends for more than 25 years, but I’ve never published a first-round mock. It’s far from perfect, but my hope is that it sparks thought and conversation about how teams approach this draft.

Signing 37-year-old Kirk Cousins alleviates the pressure to start a rookie quarterback right away, but Cousins obviously isn’t the long-term answer. Mendoza is clearly the best quarterback prospect in this class, and he fits well in Klint Kubiak’s scheme.

Did I consider Las Vegas rolling the dice with Cousins for a year and taking an edge here? You bet I did—but I decided against rage-baiting Raiders fans with the first pick in my inaugural first-round mock.

The Jets had the second-fewest sacks in the league last year, and they traded Jermaine Johnson in March, making edge a pressing need. The question is: Which edge? 

I’m giving Bailey the slight nod over Ohio State’s Arvell Reese. Part of the reason is that he’s more polished, but after looking at their workouts and frames, the gap in potential isn’t as wide as I once thought.

Arizona’s defense tied for the third-fewest sacks in the league last year and made no notable additions via free agency, so Arvell Reese makes sense here and may be a better value than Mauigoa. However, the Cardinals offense allowed the second-most sacks (59) in the NFC last season, and I believe in building the offensive line. They also may not get a player capable of pushing for the starting right tackle job at the top of the second round.

If they take Mauigoa in the first, they could still land a quality edge like Gabe Jacas or Malachi Lawrence in the second. They already have a young, talented left tackle in Paris Johnson Jr., and they should bookend the line with Mauigoa here.

The Titans need a pass rusher, and they should consider taking an offensive tackle if they love one. Tennessee also needs to add a back who allows them to commit more to the run and ideally moves Tony Pollard into a no. 2 role. While it’s against my typical draft philosophy, I’m going with the historically talented running back here, with the idea that Tennessee is taking a true offensive playmaker who can aid in Cam Ward’s development.

The chances of the Giants taking an offensive lineman dropped when they re-signed right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor, and the value at defensive tackle isn’t there … So now what? Take the best available player and address a run defense that allowed a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry last year.

TRADE: The Dolphins send nos. 11, 75, and 90 to the Browns for no. 6.

New Dolphins head coach Jeff Hafley was the Packers’ defensive coordinator last year, and he’s said that Micah Parsons will break the NFL sack record in 2026. Like Parsons, Reese is a Big Ten off-ball linebacker who could move to the edge. The Dolphins have several needs, but edge is most pressing after they traded Jaelan Phillips in November and Bradley Chubb signed with the Bills. They also have the capital to move up with 11 picks (including four in the third round), which they’ll need to use because Reese is unlikely to get past the Saints, who have the eighth pick.

Still-unsigned free agent Deebo Samuel led Washington in targets, catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in 2025, and Terry McLaurin missed seven games due to injuries. Seven years after taking McLaurin in the third round, the Commanders take another Ohio State receiver and the top pass catcher on our board in Tate.

Carnell Tate is the pick for the Saints if he slips past the Commanders, but getting the best corner in the draft isn’t a bad consolation prize. The Saints need to replace Alontae Taylor, who signed with the Titans in free agency. They should target an edge on the first two days of the draft—Miami edge Rueben Bain Jr. is in play here—but I have Delane ranked ahead of him. Plus, free agent Cameron Jordan could return to New Orleans for another year. 

Rashee Rice has ended each of the past two seasons on injured reserve and served a six-game suspension to start the 2025 season. Former first-round pick Xavier Worthy is a no. 3 receiver, and Marquise Brown signed with the Eagles. Concerns about Tyson’s medicals could cause him to drop, but he’d be in the mix to be the first receiver off the board if it weren’t for his injury history. I also like Mansoor Delane here, but he goes a pick earlier in this scenario.

Safety Jordan Battle led the Bengals in tackles last year, and the front office did well to sign Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger this offseason. But I just can’t overlook the impact Downs can make on and off the field in year one. He’d be a steal with this pick. Edge is a greater need, though, so Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. could also make sense here.

Dawand Jones (a 2023 fourth-round pick) is coming off his third consecutive season-ending leg injury, making left tackle a glaring need. But taking one at six would be a reach, especially if it’s a player with less-than-ideal length like Fano.

Trading back and taking Fano or another tackle at 11 makes more sense from a value standpoint, if Cleveland can pull it off. Fano has played both tackle spots, but he has the athletic profile of a left tackle. Outside of his outlier length, the tape is strong.

The Cowboys allowed a league-high 14 completions of 40-plus yards in 2025, and only the Jets allowed more passing touchdowns. They recently signed Cobie Durant (who could also play nickel), and the hope is that 2025 first-round pick Shavon Revel Jr. will make a significant jump in 2026. But McCoy is too talented to pass up at this spot. He missed last year with an injury, and his medicals muddy the waters in terms of where he might go, but he grades out as the second-best corner in this class.

The Rams would do well to add a no. 3 receiver, and Lemon’s toughness makes him a good fit for this offense. Part of me wants to add insurance at right tackle, but Warren McClendon Jr. played at a high level in 10 starts last year, and the plan would be to start a rookie left tackle if they were taken this early.

The Ravens signed Trey Hendrickson in the offseason, and they’re hoping that 2025 second-round pick Mike Green will make a jump in year two. But they could continue to address a pass rush that tied for the third-fewest sacks in the league last year, especially if Bain were to somehow fall this far.

Free agent signing Al-Quadin Muhammad is a nice addition, but he’s on a one-year deal, and Yaya Diaby is in the final year of his contract. Haason Reddick is a free agent, so edge remains a pressing need for the Buccaneers.

TRADE: The Steelers send nos. 21 and 76 to Jets for no. 16.

Pittsburgh has three third-round picks this year, so it gives up one of them to move up five spots for a left tackle. Broderick Jones (a 2023 first-round pick) is coming off a season-ending neck injury, but he hadn’t lived up to expectations before the injury, and the Steelers aren’t expected to exercise his fifth-year option. Proctor is a good value here, as he’s expected to go much earlier and has the traits to develop into a franchise left tackle.

The Lions released right tackle Taylor Decker, and free agent acquisition Larry Borom is better suited for a backup role. The versatility of Penei Sewell means the Lions can take the best offensive tackle on the board regardless of whether he played on the left or the right side in college. I have my concerns about Miller as a pass blocker, but he’s an NFL-ready glass eater and a great fit for the Detroit culture.

Harrison Smith is a Hall of Fame safety, and he could return in 2026, but even if he does, it’s more likely than not that it’ll be his last season. Thieneman is a plug-and-play starter with a ridiculous ceiling. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores can take advantage of his versatility and move him around depending on the matchup.

On the one hand, Carolina general manager Dan Morgan drafted a big receiver in each of the past two drafts and hit on 2025 no. 8 pick Tetairoa McMillan. With that in mind, keep an eye on Washington WR Denzel Boston. On the other hand, Morgan has drafted a tight end on day three of the past three drafts, which tells me that he is looking for a playmaker at the position to help quarterback Bryce Young. Sadiq is a good value and gives Carolina the vertical threat at TE that it’s been missing.

Faulk is a perfect piece for new defensive coordinator Christian Parker. Parker said that the defense will have core 3-4 principles but will be multiple with four-man fronts mixed in. Faulk can line up at defensive end regardless of the front, and he can play outside linebacker in base three-man fronts. It’s also worth noting that Dallas signed another big and naturally gifted edge in Rashan Gary, which indicates that the Cowboys value that kind of frame and skill set at the position.

The three best receivers in this class are off the board by pick 16 in this scenario, so I have the Jets trading back, picking up a third-round pick, and addressing their receiver need here. New York finished last in receiving yards, last in yards per reception, and tied for last in receiving touchdowns last year. They need to find a complement to Garrett Wilson, and while some might consider Boston a bit of a reach here, I have a slightly higher grade on him than I do on Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets get aggressive and trade up, not back, to fill this need.

Getting the best interior offensive lineman and addressing a glaring need should be a no-brainer for general manager Joe Hortiz and the Chargers, but it’s not that simple. The one knock on Ioane is that he’s not an elite athlete, and the Chargers are looking for offensive linemen who fit OC Mike McDaniel’s scheme, which features wide zone runs. I recognize Ioane’s limitations, but I think he’s athletic enough to make it work and too talented to pass up at this spot.

The Eagles could take an edge, but I think they’ll prioritize the offensive line with this pick. Right tackle Lane Johnson turns 36 in May, and he missed the last eight games of the 2025 season with a Lisfranc injury. I’d feel better about this pick if offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland hadn’t retired, but Iheanachor is an excellent value at this point in the draft regardless of what McShay thinks.

The Browns had the second-fewest receiving yards, were tied for the third-fewest yards per catch, and had the third-fewest receiving touchdowns last year. They also had a league-low 41.5 percent of catches result in a first down. Inexperienced quarterbacks played a role, but Cleveland needs playmakers. Cooper is the best receiver left on the board and a good value here.

Chicago needs an edge rusher to complement Montez Sweat and to bolster a run defense that surrendered an average of 5 yards per carry last season. Parker’s tape is better than his 2025 production, and he is a powerful edge rusher who can set the edge against the run. I’m slightly higher on him than McShay is.

The Bills recently signed Austin Corbett, who can line up at center and guard, but the 30-year-old has missed substantial time with injuries over the past three seasons, and it’s a one-year deal. Buffalo led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns last year, and Rutledge—who’s an excellent run blocker—can help ensure the run game doesn’t take a major step back after the team’s loss of David Edwards in free agency. I could also see the Bills getting quarterback Josh Allen a receiver if the right one were to fall.

San Francisco finished with six fewer sacks than any other team last year, and no 49ers player had more than four sacks. While injuries played a big role—Nick Bosa and 2025 first-round pick Mykel Williams both suffered season-ending ACL tears—I still think the 49ers should target an edge early. Young is the 24th-ranked player on our board, and he’s capable of playing meaningful snaps as a rookie.

The Texans drafted left tackle Aireontae Ersery in the second round last year and swing tackle Blake Fisher in the second round a year earlier. They also signed Trent Brown to a one-year deal at right tackle and Braden Smith to a two-year deal this offseason. Because of these moves, Freeling doesn’t make a ton of sense from a need standpoint, but general manager Nick Caserio has done a great job of building this roster with the short- and long-term future in mind. Freeling has arguably the highest ceiling in this tackle class and could be a steal at this spot.

Left tackle Josh Simmons missed nine games as a rookie last year, and he missed the final 10 games of the 2024 season with a knee injury at Ohio State. Right tackle Jaylon Moore has never started more than six games in a season, and he’ll be a free agent next year. Even if the Chiefs feel good about Simmons and Moore, they need insurance. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a season-ending knee injury, and he just turned 30. Lomu would add depth, and he has the skill set to develop into a starter.

Opposing offenses completed a league-high 72 percent of their passes against Miami’s defense last year, so losing Rasul Douglas and Jack Jones in free agency might not have been the worst thing. The Dolphins need to address the secondary, and Johnson is the best fit at this spot. While he had a bit of an uneven performance during Senior Bowl week, Johnson has the tape, production, natural talent, and intangibles of a first-round pick and rookie starter.

New England could add depth at offensive tackle and draft the heir apparent to 35-year-old RT Morgan Moses, but seven tackles are off the board in this scenario, and the value just isn’t there. The Patriots could also target an edge, but adding McDonald at nose tackle to complement Milton Williams and Christian Barmore is intriguing. The Patriots ranked sixth in rushing yards allowed per game last season, but the run defense wasn’t nearly as effective when Williams wasn’t in the lineup, and they gave up 135 rushing yards to Kenneth Walker III in the Super Bowl.

DeMarcus Lawrence (who missed 13 games last year) will be 34 at the start of the 2026 season, and Boye Mafe signed with Cincinnati, so edge makes sense here. It came down to Jacas and Cashius Howell for me. I’m higher on Jacas because of his frame, length, and ability to play the run. Center and running back would be considerations if there were better value at those positions.