Getty Images/Ringer illustration
There will be no article, social media post, or TV show commentary regarding Ty Simpson’s decision to enter the 2026 NFL draft that doesn’t prominently feature “15 starts.” We’ve seen over the past decade how much college starting experience correlates to NFL success, so let’s address that elephant in the room right off the top.
Here are some notable NFL QBs sorted by college starts:
60-plus starts: Bo Nix
50-plus starts: Cam Ward and Jayden Daniels
40-plus starts: Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Michael Penix Jr., Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and Jaxson Dart
30-plus starts: Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two positive outliers who fell below the 30-start threshold with 29 and 25, respectively, but they’re superhuman. And they were coached up early in their careers by guys who know a ton about quarterback development—Mahomes by Andy Reid and Allen by Brian Daboll.
With just 15 starts under his belt, Simpson has even less experience than those guys and is in a bucket with recent first-rounders Anthony Richardson and Mitchell Trubisky, both of whom had 13 starts at the college level.
Richardson’s selection in the top five by the Colts three years ago was based on his otherworldly athletic traits, so he’s not the best comp here. But with regard to Simpson’s predraft process, I can say confidently that NFL GMs will want to know what makes him different from Trubisky.
If you’re trying to talk yourself into those separating factors for Simpson—and count me as someone who is—you’re focusing on a few things:
His dad is a college coach, and Ty grew up around the game. I said early in the season that Simpson was developing and progressing at a level I hadn’t seen since Joe Burrow’s meteoric rise to no. 1 during the 2019-20 season, and that counts for something, regardless of how Simpson finished the year.
Simpson spent four years at Alabama, which is on the short list of the greatest NFL developmental programs in the country. He also played in 16 games as a backup during his first three seasons, meaning he has 31 games of experience.
He carried the Crimson Tide to an 11-4 record and the quarterfinals of the CFP—and I mean carried. Alabama’s rushing offense ranked 125th of 136 schools in the FBS, and opponents very clearly figured out how to defeat its pass protection during the final couple months of the season.
He has a stronger arm and is more mobile than people think. More importantly, he has shown elite processing, footwork, command at the line of scrimmage, post-snap deciphering, and touch/layering ability. His competitiveness and toughness are exceptional, as well.
We’re really having two separate conversations on Simpson: one about his short-term future, and one about his long-term future.
Short term, I understand declaring with the hope of being drafted early, given the lack of high-end QB talent in the upcoming draft outside of Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore (assuming he declares) and how loaded the 2027 class—which could feature Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers, Julian Sayin, Brendan Sorsby, CJ Carr, DJ Lagway, and others—is shaping up to be.
But long term, I still would’ve liked to see him return to school and follow the trend that we’ve seen play out with the above NFL quarterbacks. Simpson’s going to make a ton of money either way. There are things he needs to work on—including his deep-ball accuracy and ball security in the pocket—that could’ve been addressed with less pressure to perform at the college level. By going to the draft now, he’s risking getting selected by the wrong franchise and being put in a position to fail early on, which can permanently derail a QB’s development.
As far as Simpson’s ideal landing spots in the first round, I think the Dolphins at 12 and the Rams—either at 13 or with their second first-round pick—make the most sense. Mike McDaniel (assuming he gets another year) and Sean McVay are proven commodities when it comes to quarterback development, and they both could have a need at the position next season.
The Cardinals, Steelers, and Browns may also be in the rookie QB market, but none of those landing spots gives me a ton of confidence.
We’ll see what happens over the next few months once draft season gets into full swing, Simpson goes through interviews and testing at the combine, and we have a better idea of the coaching staffs around the league.
Hopefully I’m wrong about this decision and Simpson gets drafted to a place that’s best for his development, because I really do believe in the player.
