What I Got Right—And Wrong—About the 2025 NFL Draft Class

Welcome back to The McShay Report, and a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to the readers out there. It’s been a great year and our team couldn’t be more appreciative for everyone who’s joined us on this ride. Since starting this project with The Ringer last October, we’ve gotten to take fans behind the scenes at the Senior Bowl, the combine, and the Manning Passing Academy; we had a full week of draft coverage from Spotify’s L.A. studios; and we even had our first live show from Chicago, where Steve Muench and I got to meet many of you and put some faces to names. 

To celebrate a banner 2025 with this community and in the spirit of the season, today’s newsletter is all about giving back in a way that only I can: By telling you where my pre-draft evaluations this past April were dead wrong. As a little bonus content, you can also read about where I was spot on—but I’m guessing you’ll all scroll right past that section!

In all seriousness, while this is a fun exercise, it comes with a caveat that one season of data is almost always too small of a sample size to declare a player an NFL draft success story or an unmitigated flop. Three years is the marker that most scouts live by, although prospect success and failure is becoming more apparent earlier in careers than ever before, with quarterback (Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff come to mind) being the exception. 

While this exercise is a worthwhile check-in, think of it as a progress report, not the final grade. I’ve been in this game too long to start beating my chest or waiving my white flag 16 weeks into a player’s rookie season.

Last thing before we dive in: If you enjoy this piece and want another rookie class retrospective, be sure to check out The McShay Show’s 2025 NFL Redraft. Draft Santa and I have a couple top-five surprises that you won’t want to miss.

Shough has been my guy since the Senior Bowl, when I saw him flash on the first day of practices. During the pre-draft process, I really liked his live arm (which brings energy at the end of throws on all three levels), his plus frame, and that he had enough mobility to extend and build up speed in the open field. Shough’s big-time throws also stood out on tape. 

Steve Muench and I got to sit down with Shough at the combine, where we learned about how his college journey—which included three season-ending injuries and two transfers—humbled him, taught perseverance, and made him hungrier than the average prospect entering the league. Working with the Brohm brothers during his final stop at Louisville was also critical from a mental makeup standpoint. 

I understood the age and durability questions heading into the draft, but they didn’t bother me much. We protect QBs better than ever these days and Philip Rivers is a grandfather starting for the Colts. … What do I care if Shough just turned 26? If anything, I should have followed my eyes and gut more with this cat.

During the pre-draft process, I had a conversation with Brian Daboll about the 2025 QB class, and shared with him that I thought Dart would be the perfect fit in his system. Daboll didn’t show his cards then, but I had a pretty strong feeling going into the draft that he was New York’s guy. I even went as far as to predict that they’d trade back into the first round to select him, which ended up coming to fruition. Take a look at this excerpt from my final mock draft heading into Round 1:

The Giants make a deal with Detroit to move back into the first round to get who I think is Daboll’s guy. Dart fits his mold of a sturdy, mobile quarterback who can thrive under pressure and process quickly on the move. With seasoned veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on the roster, Dart can take a season to learn Daboll’s system. With this move, the Giants could end the first round with arguably this year’s top prospect in Abdul Carter and Daboll’s top choice at QB—without giving up significant draft capital. I would love this outcome for all parties involved.

Before Daboll’s firing, you could see why he and Dart were in many ways an excellent pairing. All of the things I loved about Dart on tape—including his poise in the pocket, mobility, and processing—were on display, and for a few weeks in October it looked like the Giants had gotten the steal of the draft. 

I’m interested to see what Dart looks like next season under a new coaching staff, but through 10 games, I’ve seen enough to think this is a guy worth holding on to and giving every chance to be a franchise QB with the Giants. The talent is there, he just needs the proper support system in place.

I’ll say this off the bat: I, like everyone else, questioned Atlanta’s process on the Pearce selection. Trading a 2026 first-rounder to the Rams for the 26th overall pick felt like an overpay at the time (especially to select a guy with football-character concerns), but it doesn’t mean I didn’t like the player I saw on tape. In fact, I thought Pearce was one of the two best true pass rushers in this class and had him as a top-15 prospect on my final big board. Walker, on the other hand, carried fit concerns and had doubters who questioned whether he was just a hybrid defender. But I really thought he could be a versatile chess piece whose leadership, pass-rush chops, and football smarts would pay dividends at the next level. 

So far, so good for the Falcons. Pearce and Walker are first (8.5) and second (5.5) among rookies in sacks, and their presence has gone a long way toward fixing an Atlanta pass rush that’s been broken since John Abraham left town.

I started my Henderson campaign at the Senior Bowl and never backed down. His quick feet, power, explosiveness, and ability to make defenders miss in space really stood out on tape. I comped him to Jahmyr Gibbs (both as a runner and receiver), and thought Henderson’s playing in a timeshare at Ohio State was a positive, not a negative. 

New England has done a good job of managing Henderson’s workload this year by pairing him with Rhamondre Stevenson, who’s in the David Montgomery/Quinshon Judkins role in the Patriots offense. We’ve seen the committee approach and patient process pay off in the second half of the season, as Henderson has looked fresh and explosive while scoring seven touchdowns over his last seven games.

I had Ersery ranked 46th on my final board and he wound up getting selected right around that spot. Ersery made my initial top 32 based strictly on his tape, but some mixed off-field reports caused me to drop him a bit going into the draft. 

Still, I liked the player and was a strong proponent of his run blocking (particularly in the outside-zone game) and his potential to develop as a pass blocker due to his combination of excellent length, strength, and mobility for his size. He’s been as advertised at LT for the Texans.

Ingram-Dawkins has rare athletic traits, and wound up being a top-100 prospect on my final board. Fifth-round defensive linemen don’t usually make much of an impact as rookies, but I like what I’ve seen from him this year. 

The most exciting part for the Vikings? There’s still so much untapped potential here because of his physical talent. I’m confident Ingram-Dawkins hasn’t come close to reaching his ceiling, and I won’t be surprised if we look back at him as one of the steals of the draft down the line.

My problem with McMillan was never the talent. Any entry-level scouting intern could figure out he was the most physically gifted WR in last year’s group. My main concern was trust in the long term. His effort and attention to detail were severely lacking on tape, and I’d gotten red-flag reports about his practice habits. But Panthers GM Dan Morgan did his due diligence and was comfortable with the pick, and it has paid off in a massive way in 2025. Few rookies in the league have been as impactful as McMillan has been for Carolina, which sits atop the NFC South. If this is who McMillan will be each and every season, I was dead-ass wrong.

Going into the draft, I had Stewart as a top-10 player in this class and my third-ranked edge prospect behind Abdul Carter and Jalon Walker, despite his lack of sack production at Texas A&M. But Stewart’s rookie season has been a major letdown, as he’s played in just six games (with four starts) and recorded zero sacks.

The offseason holdout and two injuries (an ankle sprain and a torn PCL) played big roles in his disappointing year, and it doesn’t help that he was drafted by one of the most flawed organizations in football. Stewart’s representation also deserves some blame for mishandling parts of the pre- and post-draft process. No matter the reasons why, though, there’s no arguing it’s been a frustrating rookie season.

Still, I’m far from ready to write him off. There’s a long road ahead, and Stewart will have ample opportunity to turn his obvious physical talent and effort into on-field production.

Banks has been arguably the most effective rookie offensive lineman in the league this year. I knew he was the most physically gifted tackle in the class coming out, but he had an up-and-down final season at Texas and I was concerned about how quickly he’d transition to the NFL. Banks has proved me wrong and thus far looks like a franchise left tackle for New Orleans.

I didn’t see top-50 value for Schwesinger going into the draft. He was a former walk-on and bioengineering major who had all sorts of career opportunities outside of football, but he became a force for UCLA in his final season with the Bruins and rode that momentum into being the first pick of the second round. 

Schwesinger has superlative football instincts and intellect, and enough physical talent to impact the game as a sideline-to-sideline LB. He led the Power Four in tackles a year ago, and currently ranks tied for fourth in the NFL (and first among rookies) with 147 through 15 games. As of this writing, he’s the strong favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Booker’s tape was always strong, but his lack of athleticism showed up on tape and his woeful combine workout really raised some red flags for me. But the Cowboys are a perfect scheme fit and he’s hit the ground running. Off the field, Booker’s character and leadership are legendary. I expect him to anchor the interior of that offensive line for years to come. Dallas got a great one—even if it required taking a guard with the no. 12 overall pick.