10 Draft Prospects I’m Higher Than Consensus On

Welcome back to The McShay Report! In today’s newsletter, I’m looking at 10 players I like more than most other draft analysts do.

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And be sure to check out The McShay Show this week on Monday and Thursday. You can find it on Spotify and YouTube or wherever else you get your podcasts.

Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina

If you’ve read this newsletter this month or listened to The McShay Show, you know of my love for Hampton. He’d have been a top-three pick in the 1990s. We’re in a different era of the NFL now, but Hampton is still an excellent player. He just has a unique blend of size, power, agility, and contact balance as a runner that allows him to regularly turn what should be 1-yard gains into 4-yard ones. I’ve said before that I think the gap between Ashton Jeanty—my no. 1 RB—and Hampton is smaller than the one between Hampton and the rest of the class.

The consensus has Hampton as a fringe first-rounder. I have him in my top 15.

Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M

I have two pro comparisons for Stewart. One is Danielle Hunter, who was a third-round pick in 2015 in part because he had poor production in college despite stellar athletic traits. The other is Travon Walker, the no. 1 pick in 2022. Stewart has nearly identical measurables to Walker but is bendier. He also has more upside as a pass rusher.

Stewart has exceptional traits. He possesses prototypical height and bulk with excellent arm length, plus top-end speed that is rare for his size. His torso flexibility and power in his base are special. Not many guys can fight through contact the way he can because of those two traits.

With just 1.5 sacks in 2024, Stewart has a frightening lack of production. But he was a disruptive player and has huge potential—he just needs development. Stewart flashes an elite speed-to-power technique but needs to learn how to set it up and mix it in with other pass-rush routes to keep tackles guessing more. Stewart just doesn’t know how to set blockers up, how to counter if initially reached, or simply how to get home. But he doesn’t turn 22 until November and is just scratching the surface as a pass rusher.

Matthew Golden, WR, Texas

Do not think of Golden as just a speedster. He’s fast, yes—the fastest receiver at this year’s scouting combine. But he’s also a crisp route runner with an elite stop-start ability. Give him an opening, and he’s gone. I’ve compared him to Tyreek Hill before, and it’s important to note that he’s the only player in the draft who can move like that.

The consensus big board has Golden as the 23rd-best player in the draft and the WR3 overall after Tetairoa McMillan and Luther Burden III. But I have Golden as my top-ranked wideout because I see him quickly establishing himself as a no. 2 as a rookie, with the ability to become a true no. 1 with some development. He’s also in my top 20.

Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss

He was in my top 32 earlier in March—already well above consensus, which has him in the late 50s. But this week, I have him moving up the board. I actually have the same grade on Dart as I have on Shedeur Sanders, and I think Dart could provide massive value to any team with a quarterback need—especially one in the top three, which may be best served taking one of the blue-chip players with its top pick and then grabbing a QB elsewhere in the draft (looking at you, Joe Schoen).

Maybe it’s because Lane Kiffin’s system at Ole Miss featured too many predetermined reads, obscuring how Dart’s game will transfer to the NFL. I do think he will need a year to adjust to the intricacies of the pro game. But I’ve said before that Dart has some Josh Allen in his game, and I’ve meant it—his suddenness in the pocket and ability to make throws under pressure could make him special.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State

My pro comparison for Henderson is Jahmyr Gibbs. Henderson is an explosive runner and receiver who should excel in a Gibbs-like role in the NFL—and we’ve seen how valuable that type of playmaker can be.

To be clear, I have a late Round 1 to early Round 2 grade on Henderson. I don’t think he should be taken as high as no. 12 overall, where the Lions selected Gibbs, in this draft. But his explosive initial acceleration, quick feet, and surprising power—thanks to the elite downhill momentum he can generate—give him the ability to explode upfield and make defenders miss. The sky is the limit.

Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami

With this latest update, I’ve moved Arroyo ahead of Mason Taylor to make him my no. 3 tight end in the draft. He falls just outside my top 32 players, though I was close to giving him a first-round grade. That’s quite a bit higher than most other analysts.

Arroyo is arguably the most naturally athletic receiver at the tight end position in this class. A torn ACL stunted his college production (and his medical evaluation before the draft will be important), but he’s coming off a healthy 2024 season, and he shined at the Senior Bowl. He’s a big target with a huge catch radius and unique flexibility at the position that allows him to reach balls that would be impossible to grab for most other tight ends. He also has the speed and loose hips to challenge defenses vertically and make defenders miss after the catch.

Plus, while Arroyo isn’t a great blocker, he gets in position and fights hard on tape. I appreciate his toughness and physicality, even though he’s never going to be an in-line asset as a blocker in the NFL. He’s actually a lot more physical and aggressive than guys like Colston Loveland and Terrance Ferguson. For a team in the market for a chess-piece player in the passing game, Arroyo will be worth the gamble in Round 2.

Tyler Shough, QB, Louisville

Shough is being underrated because of concerns about his age and durability. The consensus sees Shough as a fringe day-two pick, but I think he should be solidly in Round 2 consideration for teams that want a battle-tested passer who is ready to go when it comes to understanding pro-level concepts and verbiage. He’s pro-ready.

Shough is aggressive as a passer, processes well, and understands NFL defenses. He has great physical traits (he’s the tallest QB in the draft and also has the biggest hands), has a live arm, and is a good runner. His straight-line speed is the best of the top four QBs in the draft. The Louisville offense averaged 36.5 points in 2024 as Shough went 8-4 as a starter.

Jaylin Noel, WR, Iowa State

Yes, Noel is a slot receiver. But he’s a damn good one—I have Ladd McConkey as my pro comparison for him and would consider him starting at the end of Round 1. That’s way higher than the consensus that sees Noel as outside of Round 2.

Noel has elite separation skills. He’s got it all: tempo, leverage, speed outs, body control, and no wasted movement. He gets in and out of his breaks in a flash. Plus, he has no fear over the middle. Noel is tough as nails.

Noel was a three-year starter in college and had an exceptional workout at the NFL combine. He also plays faster on tape than he’s credited with and can threaten defenses vertically. Just like McConkey overperformed compared to his draft slot, I expect Noel to do the same.

Omarr Norman-Lott, IDL, Tennessee

Norman-Lott is a different evaluation because he played fewer than half of the snaps that the guys ranked above him did due to Tennessee’s extraordinary depth along its defensive line. Mason Graham (548), Kenneth Grant (547), Derrick Harmon (591), Walter Nolen (587), Darius Alexander (630), Tyleik Williams (586), and Joshua Farmer (513) all played more than twice as many snaps as Norman-Lott (225) in 2024—it helps explain his substandard stat line, but it also allowed him to play with fresh legs most of the time.

Regardless, Norman-Lott has athletic traits and the power to succeed in the NFL as a three technique, and I like the energy he brings to the field (his desire to learn and attention to detail at Senior Bowl practices really stood out to me). He’s undersized, gets knocked off his feet too often, and needs to broaden his pass-rush arsenal. But put him in a one-gap scheme as a starter with a rotation and help him sharpen his tools as a pass rusher, and you might just have a Kobie Turner on your hands.

The consensus has Norman-Lott going in the third round, but I have a Round 2 grade on him.

Oluwafemi Oladejo, Edge, UCLA

Oladejo is a developmental project as a converted off-ball linebacker. But he’s strong versus the run and has enough speed, strength, and motor to develop into an effective edge rusher. He’ll fit well as a 3-4 OLB in a scheme that is looking for power in its edge rusher (think Eagles, Steelers, Panthers, Rams, etc.). Oladejo brings good positional versatility to the table as well. He’s comfortable rushing on and off the line.

He already does a great job of getting under the pads of offensive tackles and standing them up. When he learns how to exploit those off-balance OTs with his hands and countermoves, he’ll become an effective NFL pass rusher.

The consensus would have Oladejo on the verge of slipping past day two of the draft, but I have a Round 2-3 grade on him.