CFP Semifinals Takeaways: Mendoza Mania, Moore’s Next Move, Carson Beck 2.0, and Prospect Stock Watch

It’s the morning after in college football, and I’ve got you covered with my biggest takeaways from the College Football Playoff semifinals. 

Fernando Mendoza checks another box in win: There was no question which quarterback looked like the more pro-ready prospect on Friday night

Dante Moore’s draft decision: Should the Oregon QB return to school or go pro?

Carson Beck 2.0: How Beck has played himself back into the day two conversation

Prospect stock watch: Checking in on Trinidad Chambliss and three other CFP draft risers

Over his first two playoff games, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is 31-for-36 (86 percent) for 369 yards and eight touchdown passes. In Friday night’s blowout of Oregon, he was absolutely surgical and may have cemented his case as the no. 1 pick in April’s draft. 

Everything was on time and on target against the Ducks. He had a couple off-schedule plays and was on time and on target there, as well. Sure, there was the fumble, but the run leading up to it was pretty good, too. 

I’ve watched at least 80 percent of the dropbacks for Mendoza and Moore, and while Moore may throw a prettier ball, Mendoza gets the job done efficiently with the precision of a million paper cuts. His back-shoulder stuff with Elijah Sarratt has been particularly fun to watch all season.

I do want to say this on Mendoza, though. While I love his game and think he’s about as pro-ready as you could hope for at this point in his career, he doesn’t have the upside of Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, or Jayden Daniels. And while he’s drawn comparisons to Joe Burrow, he’s definitely not in that tier of prospect, either.  

Still, he’s in the pole position for QB1 for a reason. With a strong homecoming performance against Miami in the title game, Mendoza could lock up his spot as the future face of the franchise in Las Vegas. Get your popcorn ready. Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor, and Co. won’t go quietly.

Going into the game Friday night, Moore had an opportunity to show the public why many scouts (myself included) are so high on his NFL upside. By the end of it, I was more convinced than ever that he—like Ty Simpson—could use another year in school. 

Let’s start with the pick-six to begin the game:

Moore committed two mortal sins on this play. First, he stared down his receiver and gave Indiana corner D’Angelo Ponds an easy read. Then, he threw this ball to the inside, giving Ponds the window to make the interception and return it for six the other way. If you’re going to try to fit that pass into that small of a space, you have to throw it outside. 

I was impressed at how Moore bounced back on the next possession, though, when he went 5-of-7 passing (including one drop) for 50 yards and a touchdown on a 14-play drive that took up almost 8 minutes of game time. 

It was good to show that resilience, but this just wasn’t Oregon’s night. There was a botched RPO that turned into a turnover, a strip-sack, and just too many moments where it looked like Moore’s internal clock was a beat behind where it needed to be. 

Assuming Moore enters the draft, it seems likely he’ll be off the board within the top two picks and forced to play early and often as a rookie. I’d hate to see him get drafted by an organization without a good support system and plan in place to bring him along slowly and intentionally. 

Sure, if he returns to school, he runs the risk of not being the top guy drafted in a loaded 2027 class. But so what? If I was advising Moore, I’d tell him to bet on himself going into the next college season and to get as prepared as he can possibly be with one more year of reps under his belt before going pro.

His next choice should be about what’s best for the version of him 10 years into his pro career, not what’s best for his draft position.

Man, has this guy been through a lot off the field in the last year. Whether it was leaving Georgia after two seasons as the starting QB, entering and then exiting the 2025 draft, or dating a Cavinder twin and having his Lamborghini stolen, there were moments when I questioned whether Beck would be more of a distraction than an asset for this Miami team. 

But then some positive reports started rolling in from camp, and slowly but surely, we started seeing Beck mature on the field. Over the course of the season, I saw a QB who was playing within himself instead of always trying to force the issue in big moments the way he did at times in Athens.

When it was time to be the hero on Thursday night, though, he stepped up in a major way, leading the Hurricanes on a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that culminated with Beck scrambling for the score. And he got some help in that final frame, including from Keelan Marion (more on him later) and freshman receiver Malachi Toney, who had a 75-yard catch-and-run score of his own.

From a scouting perspective, Beck is big, strong, tough, and has a good arm. I think he is working himself into the day two conversation and is firmly in the QB4 mix behind Mendoza, Moore (assuming he comes out), and Simpson. If Beck performs against an Indiana defense that dealt knockout punches to Simpson and Moore in subsequent showings, he could start closing the gap on Simpson as the QB3 in this class. 

Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss

Hats off to Trinidad Chambliss. Ole Miss didn’t get the win on Thursday, but he carried his team all night and made plays when not much else was working. His final line—23-of-37 passing for 277 yards and one touchdown—doesn’t do his performance justice. Chambliss was absolutely nails on the Rebels’ late touchdown drive to take the lead, and he even completed two big passes on their final drive to get in position for a Hail Mary. That’s what leaving it all on the field looks like. 

Off the field, Chambliss has applied for a sixth year of eligibility, but the NCAA rejected his request on Friday, pending an appeal. My two cents: let the kid play! He’s been the best story in college football this year after rising from the DIvision II ranks last season. For all the NIL and transfer portal chaos the NCAA has created, you’d think they’d recognize when a good thing is right in front of them. 

If he’s not able to return to Ole Miss and instead declares for the draft, Chambliss is going to be a very interesting evaluation. He had no runway as the starter for the Rebels and had to develop on the fly in the middle of the season, but he rose to the occasion and has some splashy traits. I think he has a chance to be one of the first five QBs drafted in this class. I’d take a flier on him if I were GM.

Miami WR Keelan Marion

Marion is currently a day three prospect, but his stock absolutely got a boost in the Fiesta Bowl. The 6-foot, 197-pound BYU transfer caught seven passes for 114 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss, and was Beck’s security blanket in the game’s biggest moments. Throughout the season, Marion was more of a secondary option for this offense and thus put up modest counting stats, but I studied his tape today and saw a lot to like. 

He doesn’t have a ton of twitch or wiggle, but I think Marion has really good vision and I like how decisive he is with the ball in his hands. I also like how he plucks it on the run and transitions upfield in a hurry, and how tough he is with contested catches over the middle of the field.

Ole Miss WR De'Zhaun Stribling

His production was not off the charts (five receptions for 77 yards) on Thursday against Miami, but Stribling made a couple critical, tough catches late in the game to keep the Rebels in it. 

Stribling started the year slow, but he picked it up at a good time, finishing the season with four touchdowns over his final five games while averaging five catches for 84 yards per contest over that span. I expect him to rise throughout the predraft process and wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up getting picked in the top 100. 

Indiana CB D’Angelo Ponds

Ponds got the Hoosiers off to a great start in the semifinal, as he picked off Moore’s first pass of the game and returned it 25 yards for six. At 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, Ponds is undersized, but I love his physicality. He reminds me of San Francisco 49ers corner Upton Stout, who’s had a great year and wound up inside the top 100 last draft. 

Miami has two draft-eligible receivers in Marion and CJ Daniels that Ponds could spar with in the national title game, but I’m most interested to see him line up across from true freshman dynamo Malachi Toney. 

There aren’t many Big Ten receivers with Toney’s skill set. If Ponds gets after him and makes it an uncomfortable matchup, he’ll have passed a big test in the eyes of scouts.

Ty Simpson (65%)
Carson Beck (35%)