Draft Day Buzz: What I’m Hearing Just a Few Hours Out From Round 1

Everyone ready? Draft day. It’s finally here. Let’s not kid ourselves, every draft is its own brand of crazy. New players, different story lines, all unpredictable. But the calm before the storm on this one feels downright weird. And if the conversations I’ve had over the past 24 hours are any indication, we’re in for a turbulent night. 

We’ll get into that below, but I want to start by rewinding the clock a bit. My first year working the draft was 1998 under my mentor Gary Horton, who sneaked me into my first combine and taught me everything I needed to know about scouting. It’s been a whirlwind 27 years, but I’ve loved every minute of being part of the draft community.

If you’ve been a fan of mine since the early ESPN days and jumped on board for this new frontier at The Ringer, I can’t thank you enough. Your continued support and passion for the game of football is why I keep doing this thing. 

Tonight, I’ll be breaking down every pick of the first round with my right-hand man Steve Muench, who’s been with me since our days as teammates at Richmond in the mid-’90s. He’s the yin to my yang, the backup offensive lineman to my scout team quarterback. I wouldn’t want to be doing it with anyone else. 

We hope you’ll join us for what I promise will be a different type of draft experience from what’s being offered by the TV networks. It’s going to be old school: no pick tipping, no overly emotional player origin stories, just ball and deep-dive analysis of all 32 selections. 

Join us at 7 p.m. ET on YouTube if that sounds like your kind of party. 

All right, let’s get into it.

On Today’s Agenda:

The Shedeur Sanders–Mike Tomlin Love Is Real

A few months ago, the idea that Shedeur Sanders could fall out of the top 10 seemed inconceivable. But with just a few hours until the draft kicks off in Green Bay, league sources I’ve spoken to are expecting him to slide. I’m told that even Sanders’s camp is prepared for him to not come off the board in the top 20 picks. 

I’m still hearing people say they wouldn’t rule out the Giants at no. 3, but I’m told New York will not be drafting him there. In fact, I’ve heard from two different sources that his visit with head coach Brian Daboll did not go particularly well. The friction centered on some frustration between the two regarding Sanders’s preparation of an install package. 

It seems the interview process as a whole—beginning in Indianapolis, as I reported a few days after the combine—has negatively affected the leaguewide perception of Sanders during the lead-up to this year’s draft. 

But as I’ve said before, all it takes is one team. And as of this writing, I expect that team to be the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Based on conversations I’m having with people in the league, there’s a growing sense that Sanders will be the pick at 21. As I’ve said multiple times over the past couple of weeks, Mike Tomlin and Sanders did hit it off during the pre-draft process—any reports to the contrary are false. 

The good news for Sanders is that since Omar Khan was promoted to general manager in 2022, Tomlin has had a greater impact on personnel decisions than he did when Kevin Colbert was GM. Colbert and he worked together wonderfully, but Colbert had the final say on the vast majority of roster moves. Now, Tomlin has more power than he’s ever had.

I say all that because the info I’m getting is that there’s a strong likelihood Tomlin is going to push the organization to draft Sanders. I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance that Sanders will be a Steeler by the end of the night.

It’s worth noting that there are voices in the organization who are not behind the decision. I don’t think the drafting of Kenny Pickett—Pittsburgh’s most recent first-round QB—is a huge factor, but the memories from that experience can’t be overlooked. Pickett, like Sanders, wasn’t considered a top-tier talent who could help the Steelers compete with the loaded group of quarterbacks at the top of the AFC. 

One final note: If Sanders does get past the Steelers at 21, I expect him to be on the board when Round 2 commences on Friday.

Game of Chicken Between the Giants and Saints for Jaxson Dart

If Sanders is the pick at 21, the focus of the end of the first round will turn to Jaxson Dart, and which team will outmaneuver everyone else for his services.

I’ve been told Dart is high on the Saints’ list. In fact, based on calls I had yesterday, they like him more than I realized. Maybe not enough to take him with the ninth pick, but don’t be surprised if Saints GM Mickey Loomis tries trading back into the first round using a package of the 40th and 71st picks to move into the mid-20s. 

Expect there to be competition, though. The Giants also like Dart, and on paper—New York has day-two picks at 34, 65, and 99, compared to New Orleans’s picks 40, 71, and 93—are better positioned to make a deal. 

But Loomis is a renegade. If my intel is correct and Dart is who they want, people in the league know he’ll do what it takes to get that done. The Giants are acutely aware of that as well. 

I don’t expect either of these teams to consider Dart in the top 10. The Giants shouldn’t pass on the opportunity to draft Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter, and as I wrote in Mock 4.0, I think New Orleans would be wise to draft the top edge defender on their board to act as Cameron Jordan’s spiritual successor along the Saints’ defensive front seven.

Could the Jaguars Be Trying to Trade Up?

I mentioned in my final mock draft that if Jacksonville sticks and picks at 5, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will likely be the pick. I still believe that’s true. There’s also been some speculation among league sources that they would entertain moving back as long as it isn’t past 11, with the potential plan being to pick Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan before the Cowboys are on the clock at 12. 

But what if there’s a third option? In the past 24 hours, multiple league sources have reached out to me wondering whether new GM James Gladstone is actually trying to move up, not down. I don’t have much info outside of that, but I find it interesting that I’ve been approached with that question by two different people. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that the Jags have been eyeing a move up to 2, and I think he may be on to something. 

Let’s play out the football logic. If Jacksonville is after an offensive skill guy to help get Trevor Lawrence back on track under first-year head coach Liam Coen, the only player who fits the bill in a move-up scenario is Colorado’s Travis Hunter. I haven’t gotten the sense that the Browns are looking to move out of no. 2, but I’d be curious how much it would take to wrestle that pick away. 

There’s a lot of gossip in the draft weekend game of telephone, though, and that’s all this could be. But Jacksonville is a team to monitor. They are the biggest wild card in the top five, followed by Chicago in the top 10 and Denver in the top 20.

While a Jags move-up seems like it’d be for Hunter, a Bears or Broncos move would likely be for Jeanty. If Sean Payton can’t make that big of a jump, though, look for him to explore a shorter trip up the board for Penn State’s Tyler Warren or Michigan’s Colston Loveland—the two premier tight end prospects in this class.

Top Talents Who Could Fall

I consider the above six guys to be top-20 talents in this draft, which is why I’m shocked to hear how much uncertainty there is about when they will be selected. I can't remember going into a first round with this many high-end players who have such drastically different draft ceilings and floors. 

Texas corner Jahdae Barron is another interesting name to monitor. Adam Schefter reported he could go as high as no. 7, but there’s also a scenario where he’s on the board until the mid 20s.