Mock Draft 4.0: Two Rounds, Three Trades in the Top 10, and a Ty Simpson Sighting

Welcome back to The McShay Report! It’s Mock 4.0 day, and I’ve got a ton of changes to share from the last time we completed this exercise three weeks ago. And for the first time all draft season, I’m including trades in the mock, with three in the top 10 and five in the first round—including one for Alabama QB Ty Simpson. 

A quick note before we get to the picks: Premium subscribers will have access to two rounds of picks in this mock, and Steve and I are going to be releasing team-needs newsletters—as well as draft strategies and three rounds of picks—for all 32 franchises later this week.

OK, let’s get to it. The Raiders (but really, the Jets) are on the clock.

As Albert Breer noted on our show last week, the Raiders’ decision has been trending this way since the fall, and it was solidified when Dante Moore returned to Oregon. Since then, the process has been about confirming Mendoza as the guy with standard predraft checkpoints, including a recent Zoom with Tom Brady. Behind the scenes, Mendoza has already been preparing for the transition, working with Brian Griese on the nuances of an NFL system (likely Klint Kubiak’s). His private workout and visit in Bloomington functioned more like an early install than a typical predraft stop.

The Raiders have prepared for this the right way. Signing Kirk Cousins gives them a veteran bridge and allows Mendoza to develop on a proper timeline—very much in line with the Brady philosophy of not rushing young quarterbacks. Mendoza is transitioning from a shotgun-heavy, RPO-based offense to a scheme where he'll take roughly 50 percent of his snaps under center, with an emphasis on wide zone play-action and quick, timing-based decisions. But there’s nothing in Mendoza’s background to suggest he won’t handle it. It’s just a new system, a new language, and a new pace. Las Vegas is committed to giving him the time he needs to develop. 

This pick has come full circle. My early intel was Bailey to the Jets at no. 2 because he’s the most proven pass rusher in the class. Then there were folks in the league who thought the Jets—as they’re building for 2027, when they’ll land their QB—might prefer the “higher upside” guy in Arvell Reese because they have time to develop him.

Now we’re back to Bailey, and it’s close to a foregone conclusion in NFL circles. While the Jets are miles away from playoff contention, HC Aaron Glenn needs to build positive momentum in 2026. Bailey gives them an elite pass rusher immediately. He’ll take his lumps as a run defender, but the real value at edge (the league’s second-most valued position) is pass rush production. Pairing Bailey with Will McDonald IV will give the Jets a strong, young defensive foundation.

TRADE: The Saints trade no. 8, no. 42, and a 2027 second-rounder to the Cardinals for no. 3.

If the Saints stick and pick at no. 8, there’s some buzz about Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson being a favorite in the building. But defensively, edge and corner are clear priorities, and coordinator Brandon Staley is looking for very specific prototypes—guys with explosive burst off the edge and high-IQ cornerbacks with the versatility to pattern match and play both man and zone. 

If they go corner, Mansoor Delane would be a clean fit, but because edge is the second-most premium position in the NFL behind only quarterback, moving up for Reese would make a lot of sense. If the price is right—I’m projecting pick no. 42 this year plus a 2027 second-rounder—it’d be exactly the type of deal that GM Mickey Loomis has never been shy about making. He even explained to us at the Senior Bowl why he believes so strongly in going up to get a player the Saints truly covet.

Similar to Bailey to the Jets at no. 2, Love to Tennessee at no. 4 was the sense I was getting coming out of the combine, and I probably shouldn’t have moved away from it in Mock 3.0. Yes, the rookie salary scale would make Love a top-10-paid running back before he even takes an NFL handoff, and yes, there’s a decade-long track record of top-10 RBs not winning a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them. But that’s more an indictment of those organizations than of the players themselves, as Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson all landed in less-than-ideal situations early on.

This Titans situation is different. It’s a new regime that has already reshaped the roster, particularly on defense, with the additions of Jermaine Johnson II, John Franklin-Myers, Alontae Taylor, and Cordale Flott. More importantly, they have a second-year quarterback in Cam Ward—now paired with Brian Daboll and an improved offensive line—who’s in a critical stage of his development. At this point, it’s about surrounding him with playmakers.

Love fits that vision perfectly. He’s 6 feet and 212 pounds with excellent vision, power behind his pads, loose feet, and 4.36-second 40 speed, which makes him a high-end runner. But what really elevates him for Tennessee is his versatility. Love’s dynamic impact in the passing game (10.4 yards per catch last season) and his reliability in pass protection make him a true three-down factor.

This pick is one of the clear pressure points in Round 1. I went back and forth between Mauigoa and LB Sonny Styles. John Harbaugh has a rich history of elite linebackers anchoring his defenses dating back to the Ray Lewis days, but with a young quarterback in Jaxson Dart, improving the offensive line has to be the priority. Giants quarterbacks were sacked 48 times last season (tied for 23rd) and pressured on 35 percent of dropbacks (25th).

I even reached out to former coaches and personnel who’ve worked with Harbaugh to get a sense of which way he might lean, and while linebacker and safety are important, there’s a belief he would go offensive line in this scenario. Taking Mauigoa after signing Jermaine Eluemunor—with both players capable of playing right tackle or sliding inside to guard—would give the Giants valuable flexibility to get their best five on the field.

TRADE: The Cowboys trade no. 12, no. 92, and a 2027 second-rounder to the Browns for no. 6.

Defensive coordinator Christian Parker covets athleticism and intelligence at linebacker for his scheme, and Styles checks both boxes. A former safety, Styles measured in at 6-foot-5 and 244 pounds (the biggest LB in the class) and still ran the fastest 40 (4.46 seconds, tied with Reese) and the fastest 10-yard split (1.56 seconds, tied with Namdi Obiazor) among LBs while also posting the top broad jump (11 feet, 2 inches) and setting a record for players 6-foot-4 or taller with a 43.5-inch vertical since 2003.

Beyond the off-the-charts testing, Styles is widely regarded as one of the smartest players in the draft. One executive told me that he’ll run a company when his football days are over. He should step in and improve the football IQ of this defense and help clean up the play at the second and third levels.

TRADE: The Jets trade no. 16, no. 44, and no. 140 to the Commanders for no. 7.

The Jets have plenty of draft capital, and they’re not interested in sitting back at 16 and watching the top three receivers come off the board. In this scenario, they use their second of two Round 2 picks (no. 44) and a fourth-rounder (no. 140) to move up and secure the most complete wide receiver in the class in Tate.

Tate brings the profile they’re missing. He’s over 6-foot-2 with massive 10 1/4–inch hands, which helped him secure 85.7 percent of his contested catch opportunities in 2025. He’s not a pure burner, with 4.53-second 40 speed, but plenty of top NFL receivers have lived in that range, and Tate wins where it matters as an exceptional deep route runner with strong ball skills. With Tate at X and a healthy Wilson at Z, the Jets would finally have the kind of perimeter firepower needed to stabilize the offense and properly support a future franchise quarterback from the loaded 2027 class.

TRADE: The Cardinals trade no. 3 to the Saints for no. 8, no. 42, and a 2027 second-rounder.

This would be a home-run move for GM Monti Ossenfort. He lands the right tackle in Fano to help finish off the offensive line rebuild while also picking up additional draft capital this year (no. 42) and next year (Saints’ second-rounder), giving Arizona real flexibility to get aggressive in its pursuit of a franchise quarterback in 2026 and/or 2027.

Arizona’s issues up front were clear last season, as it allowed the fifth-most sacks in the league (59) and struggled to run effectively outside the tackles. Fano directly addresses both problems and helps an improving unit that added Isaac Seumalo in free agency. 

Don’t rule out a move up for the Chiefs—they’ve spent significant time evaluating top pass rushers Bailey and Reese. It also wouldn’t be a surprise if Rueben Bain Jr. were the pick here, and there have been some rumblings about interest in Kenyon Sadiq as well. As usual, Brett Veach is doing a great job of keeping everyone outside the building guessing.

That said, I’ve been getting a lot of questions from teams about Tyson and where he might land, which is typically my biggest indicator that a player’s going earlier than expected. A healthy Tyson is arguably the best wide receiver in the class. He’s a 6-foot-2-plus target who consistently separates and is a reliable option (1.6 percent drop rate last season), traits that Mahomes desperately needs at the position.

The Bengals’ defensive issues were clear last season, as they allowed 7.8 yards per attempt (29th) and 33 passing touchdowns (tied for 29th). There’s a strong case to be made for addressing the front with more pass rush help, which could put Rueben Bain Jr. in play. Cornerback is arguably a bigger need, making Mansoor Delane a logical option as well.

But the prevailing feeling around the league is that Cincinnati won’t pass on the opportunity to draft an Ohio State star in this spot, and Downs is more than worthy of the 10th overall pick. His game draws comparisons to two of the best safeties of the modern era: Eric Berry and Earl Thomas, both top-15 picks who went on to multiple Pro Bowls.

Delane is the best player available in this scenario, and Jeff Hafley would be thrilled to land him. The Virginia Tech transfer thrived in his lone season at LSU, developing into a true shutdown corner while excelling in both man and zone coverage. He’s exactly the type of versatile, high-IQ defensive back that Hafley values in his aggressive, disguise-heavy scheme that leans on mixed coverages.

What stands out most on Delane’s tape is his football intelligence—particularly how seamlessly he transitions from man to zone—along with how natural and effortless he looks when the ball is in the air. The testing backs it up, too, as the 6-foot, 187-pound corner boosted his stock with a high-4.3 run at LSU’s pro day.

TRADE: The Browns trade no. 6 to the Cowboys for no. 12, no. 92, and a 2027 second-rounder.

I’ve been told by multiple sources that the Browns have significant interest in Proctor. Taking him at no. 6 would be a reach, and he likely wouldn’t make it to 24, so this becomes a logical solution. By moving back just six spots, Cleveland picks up no. 92 (Round 3) and a future second-rounder (valuable capital for a potential QB move in 2027) from Dallas while still landing a player it views as the potential final piece of its offensive line overhaul.

Proctor’s evaluation is a bit of a roller coaster. The tape is inconsistent, and the weight fluctuation—from around 390 pounds to 365 during the season to 352 at the combine—raises legitimate concerns. But at 6 feet, 6 5/8 inches and 352 pounds, he’s a rare mover, posting a 5.21-second 40 and a 32.5-inch vertical. Offensive tackle is a traits-driven position, and Cleveland is an analytics-driven organization. This is exactly the kind of bet it’s willing to make.

All chips are in on the Rams’ 2027 season, and Lemon is the best available prospect to support that plan. He may not have elite size or top-end speed for the position, but he’s built “Ram tough,” he’s as reliable as it gets at the catch point, and he consistently generates yards after the catch with excellent contact balance and body control.

The production backs up the tape: Lemon averaged over 3.0 yards per route run against both man and zone coverage during his college career. Since 2021, only five other receivers have done that: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jaylen Waddle, D’Wayne Eskridge, Ja’Marr Chase, and DeVonta Smith.

The Miami edge is a power-based, relentless defender who produced at a high level in 2025 (54 tackles, 15.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, plus a forced fumble and an interception). Adding him to a group that already includes Trey Hendrickson, Tavius Robinson, and Mike Green would give Baltimore a much-needed boost off the edge after finishing with just 30 sacks last season (tied for the third fewest in the NFL).

From what I’ve been told, Bain could still go as high as no. 9 to Kansas City, but his arm length is a real concern and may contribute to a draft-day slide (no edge with sub-31-inch arms has gone in the first round in at least two decades). It’s worth noting that teams have known about and investigated Bain’s involvement in a fatal 2024 car crash for months, so this projected slide is not a reflection of that news. Guard Vega Ioane and TE Kenyon Sadiq are also very much in play for the Ravens here. 

Improving the pass rush is an absolute must for Todd Bowles’s defense. Mesidor brings exactly what they’re missing—he’s a polished, productive pass rusher with a deep arsenal of moves, change-of-direction quickness, violent hands, and a relentless motor. There are some age and durability concerns (he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie and has dealt with various injuries), but this is a team focused on the present, not a second contract. And from what I’ve heard, most teams view his durability risk as moderate.

Production-wise, he checks out. He had 12.5 sacks, a 21.3 percent pass rush win rate (just behind Bain and Bailey in this class), and four forced fumbles in his final college season. That’s the type of impact the Bucs need off the edge.

TRADE: The Commanders trade no. 7 to the Jets for no. 16, no. 44, and no. 140.

By moving back from no. 7 to no. 16, Washington is able to recoup its second-round pick while adding an extra fourth-rounder, bringing its total draft capital to eight selections.

The bigger picture is this: The Commanders have a young star at quarterback in Jayden Daniels but not nearly enough playmaking talent around him. New OC David Blough is looking for size and run-after-the-catch physicality on the outside, and Cooper checks those boxes. He would step in as an immediate starter, and his inside-out versatility would give Blough flexibility in three-receiver sets, where Cooper could work alongside Terry McLaurin and either Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, or Deebo Samuel.

The Lions had one of the worst pass-protecting offensive lines in the NFL last season, and you could argue that no high-level starting quarterback was more affected by pressure than Jared Goff. Fixing that has to be a priority.

Proctor is the tackle most commonly mocked to Detroit, and while his traits might be more enticing, Miller’s tape is far more consistent. Miller is 6 feet, 6 3/4 inches and 317 pounds with 34 1/4–inch arms, and he ran a 5.04-second 40, posted a 32-inch vertical (72nd percentile among the last three OT classes), and put up 32 bench reps (the best among offensive linemen at the last three combines).

The Vikings had real issues catching the football last season, and the situation hasn’t exactly improved. With Jalen Nailor now in Las Vegas, they’re currently planning to give Tai Felton and his three rookie receptions a starting role. That’s a problem.

This pick might feel a bit rich for Boston, but based on conversations I had with a couple of teams over the weekend, the gap between him, KC Concepcion, and Omar Cooper Jr. isn’t nearly as wide for some teams as the draft community may think. It really comes down to stylistic preference, and for Minnesota, the need is clear: a big, physical outside receiver to complement Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Boston fits that mold perfectly.

Only the Jets and Buccaneers got fewer receiving yards from their tight ends than Carolina last season (638), so there’s a clear need for a difference-maker at the position who can help Bryce Young attack the seams and the middle of the field.

Sadiq may not grade out quite as high as Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland did a year ago, but if you’re comparing the three purely from an athletic standpoint, he’s the most explosive. That athleticism shows up on tape and was on full display at the combine, where he ran a 4.39-second 40 (an all-time record for tight ends) and posted a 43-inch vertical and 11-foot-1 broad jump—both in the 97th percentile among TEs over the past three years.

Dallas addressed its linebacker need earlier in this exercise, so now the focus shifts to the secondary. The Cowboys gave up 35 passing touchdowns last season—second most in the NFL behind only the Jets (36)—so getting help on the back end is a priority.

There’s been plenty of buzz linking the Cowboys to safeties such as Caleb Downs and Dillon Thieneman, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they picked Thieneman if he’s available. That said, you could make a strong argument that cornerback is the bigger need, and McCoy offers outstanding value here. He’s a top-10 talent who slides to no. 20 largely due to concerns about his knee after he tore his ACL, PCL, and MCL in January 2025. He looked excellent at Tennessee’s pro day—running in the 4.3s and moving well in position drills—but medical evaluations remain mixed.

This would be a dream scenario for the Steelers, especially with Pittsburgh hosting the 2026 NFL draft. Not every fan base would be thrilled about taking a guard in Round 1, but this city would absolutely embrace it—particularly with Ioane stepping in to replace veteran Isaac Seumalo at left guard.

At 6 feet, 4 1/4 inches and 320 pounds, Ioane is a powerful, physical presence who consistently moves defenders in the run game. He’s not an elite athlete, but he more than makes up for that with awareness, balance, and play strength, grading out as a high-level pass protector.

TRADE: The Bears trade no. 25 and no. 129 to the Chargers for no. 22.

Last season, the Bears allowed 61 completions of 20-plus yards (second most in the NFL) and 13 passing touchdowns of 20-plus yards (tied for the most), and four of their top five defensive backs in snaps—Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Byard, Nahshon Wright, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson—are now gone. Thieneman brings the range and coverage ability to help clean up those numbers and fill a positional need immediately. He’s both the best player available on my board and the type of rangy, coverage-oriented safety that DC Dennis Allen wants.

I love this fit. Lane Johnson missed the final eight games of the 2025 season with a Lisfranc injury—including the wild-card loss to the 49ers—and will be 36 at the start of the regular season. This is the perfect time to plan for the future at offensive tackle. Freeling isn’t polished after just 18 starts at Georgia, but he has elite traits worth developing.

The Browns addressed offensive tackle earlier in the round, so now the focus shifts to adding a (badly needed) playmaker. In 2025, Cleveland’s receivers were last in the league in receptions (117), receiving yards (1,467), receiving touchdowns (four), and first downs (68). Enter Concepcion, who would step in immediately as a reliable, big-play option in the slot. It’s also worth noting that the league is higher on Concepcion than the public thinks. Many teams I’ve spoken with have him graded as a WR4 or WR5 in this class.

TRADE: The Chargers trade no. 22 to the Bears for no. 25 and no. 129.

The Chargers have more pressing needs at IOL, IDL, and edge—I get it. But with Vega Ioane off the board and the considerable depth at defensive tackle on day two, this feels like a spot where they can pivot. I’ve gone with Keldric Faulk here in the past, but this time I’m leaning Johnson in a bit of a surprise pick that would elevate a cornerback room that’s solid but unspectacular.

Adding Johnson, who is generating more buzz in league circles than people probably realize, would give the Chargers an immediate upgrade and long-term stability at the position in a division featuring Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, and now Fernando Mendoza. As for why Johnson over Colton Hood, who ranks higher on many boards, it comes down to scheme fit. DC Chris O’Leary leans heavily on zone-match concepts, which align perfectly with Johnson’s strengths: quick processing, man-zone versatility, ball skills, and physicality in the run game.

I get the strong sense that the Bills would like to add a wide receiver here, but it’s hard to see them moving up without a second-round pick, and in this scenario, six receivers are already off the board. Even for those in the room pushing for another target for Josh Allen, there are a few important factors to consider.

First, although Buffalo won’t pick again until no. 91, there will likely be impact receivers (think Malachi Fields, Elijah Sarratt, or Deion Burks) available there. Second, Faulk represents excellent value at no. 26. The production at Auburn wasn’t eye-popping, and I understand why some scouts question his ceiling as a pass rusher, but his skill set is unique, he just turned 21, and, at minimum, he’s already a very strong run defender. Third—and most importantly—the Bills have a real pass rush problem, and that’s not something Allen can fix. They ranked 27th in pass rush win rate (31 percent) last season and managed just one sack across two playoff games. Even if you’re skeptical about Faulk’s pass rush upside, his ability to hold up against the run will help keep the rotation fresh and create better situations for others to get after the quarterback.

This is a forward-thinking move for San Francisco. The 49ers would draft Lomu with the plan to develop him into the starting left tackle by 2027, as Trent Williams is set to turn 38 in a few months. Lomu shows impressive natural instincts for the position, though he’s still relatively inexperienced, with just 24 starts (all at left tackle) over the past two seasons. He’s a bit high-cut and could stand to add more bulk, but he’s a high-level athlete with the quickness, balance, and mirroring ability you look for at the position.

The Texans already have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL—now the focus is getting C.J. Stroud back to his rookie form. The best way to do that is by ensuring the protection and run game remain strong. Houston added RT/OG Braden Smith and RB David Montgomery to pair with Woody Marks, but bringing in a young tackle such as Iheanachor would help solidify the foundation long term.

Iheanachor gives Houston flexibility to get its best five offensive linemen on the field—potentially with him at right tackle and Smith kicking inside to guard—a competition that would sort itself out in training camp. He’s still developing, particularly working on his hand placement and occasional lunging, which makes sense given that he’s relatively new to football after growing up in Nigeria and not playing high school football. But the traits are undeniable, and his progression in a short amount of time has been impressive.

The Chiefs feel confident that they can scheme around their current cornerback group, even after losing Trent McDuffie (trade) and Jaylen Watson (free agency) to the Rams. But if Hood—who would be a clean man-to-man fit in Steve Spagnuolo’s system—falls into this range, the pick may be too good a value to pass up.

Hood brings a physical, aggressive play style with the ability to turn and run vertically (verified 4.44-second 40 speed). He’s still developing his instincts when the ball is in the air, but the traits, competitiveness, and confidence are all there for him to grow into a high-level starter.

TRADE: The Cardinals trade no. 34, no. 143, and no. 183 to the Dolphins for no. 30.

Simpson’s strengths and flaws have been dissected to no end, so rather than rehashing all of that, here’s the logic for Arizona. The Jets have interest, but I don’t get the sense they’re willing to move up—they’ll likely sit at 33 and see if he’s still on the board. It’s not a lock they’d take him, but he’d definitely be in play for them.

That creates an opportunity for Arizona. After trading down from no. 3 to no. 8 and adding extra capital this year and in a QB-rich 2027 class, they’re in a position to take a calculated swing. The cost (a fifth- and sixth-round pick) is minimal, and they’d land a quarterback with legitimate starting upside who fits first-year HC Mike LaFleur’s system. Just as importantly, it would give them a full year to evaluate Simpson internally before deciding how aggressive they want to be in next year’s quarterback market.

This is a strong value pick late in Round 1. McNeil-Warren is one of three potential first-round prospects the Patriots brought in for a 30 visit, and if last year is any indication, that matters, as the majority of Mike Vrabel and Eliot Wolf’s picks came from that visit pool.

New England did add Kevin Byard in free agency after losing Jaylinn Hawkins, but Byard is 32 and on a one-year deal, so there’s still a long-term need at the position. While the offensive and defensive lines may be higher priorities—especially if the anticipated A.J. Brown move happens after June 1—this pick checks both the value and future need boxes.

A lot of people want to plug Jadarian Price in here as Seattle’s immediate replacement for Kenneth Walker III, and while I wouldn’t rule it out entirely, it feels a bit rich at this spot. More likely, GM John Schneider will stay patient and let the board come to him, targeting the highest-graded player at RB, CB, or edge. And if the right trade-back opportunity doesn’t materialize, Parker would make a lot of sense.

Parker was viewed as an ascending talent entering the 2025 season, but things didn’t quite go as planned (which was the case for several Clemson prospects). NFL teams seem to think there were some off-field factors—including getting married during the season and adjusting to a new defensive coordinator—that contributed to the uneven year.