Negative Outliers: Why They Suck, and What I Think About Five NFL Draft Prospects With Major Red Flags

Let me share a frustrating reality: As an evaluator, you get invested—to a certain degree—in every player.

For some, it’s four to five hours of tape, background work (character, medical, family dynamics, high school history, career arc, NIL/portal movement, etc.). For others—such as Fernando Mendoza, Garrett Nussmeier, Caleb Downs, and Jeremiyah Love—it’s 10-plus hours going back to last spring.

That’s phase one. That’s when the attachment forms. You see what he does on tape. You see the growth. The work. In many cases, what he’s had to overcome just to get here. And you start to believe in what he can become at the next level.

Then comes phase two—call it the blemish phase. Or the reality check. This is when the verified measurables, testing numbers, and historical data hit. And they bring some uncomfortable truths with them.

It’s not all that different from dating. The flaws show up. And now you’ve got a decision to make on a player who already pulled you in with the tape.

You start rationalizing. Looking for reasons this one will be different. You point to past outliers who beat the odds—high-level starters, even Hall of Famers.

But the question keeps coming back: Is this one of those guys … or am I walking into a trap? There’s not always a clean answer, and there’s no way around it—it just sucks.

This year’s class has several of these cases where the internal tug-of-war is very real. Below, I’ve outlined the five “outliers” that have given me the most trouble during the 2026 predraft process.